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Padres vs Twins: Twins Look for Series Win at Home

Written by: Max Heering
Published May 11, 2023
5 min read
  • The San Diego Padres have won three of their last five games.
  • The Minnesota Twins have lost three of their last four games.
  • The Padres were 2-1 against the Twins last season.

San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Odds

Odds Taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.




San Diego Padres



O 8


Minnesota Twins



U 8


San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins Picks

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Padres vs Twins Predictions

Padres vs Twins - Moneyline Analysis

The San Diego Padres will stay in Minnesota to face the Twins for the final game of a three-game series. The Padres won the first game of this series 6-1 but lost the second game 4-3 in 11 innings. 

The Padres are in third place in the NL West with a 19-18 record. San Diego is sitting in the third Wild Card but could move closer to the second spot with a win. On the other side, the Twins are in first place in the AL Central with a 20-17 record. Luckily for Minnesota, they play in the worst division in baseball and would be in third place or worse in most other divisions.

The Padres should have one of the best lineups in baseball. San Diego hits pretty well, but given the number of offensive weapons they possess, they should score more than 4.16 goals per game. San Diego’s offensive has been particularly slow lately. They are averaging less than three runs per game in their previous five games. This is concerning, especially since this lineup has Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Jake Cronenworth, Nelson Cruz, Matt Carpenter, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Any time a team has this many strong hitters, they should be averaging at least five runs a game. It is worth noting that Tatis Jr. has played well since making his season debut, but the Padres need to step up their offensive production as a whole.

Yu Darvish will take the hill for San Diego. Darvish is the Padres’ ace and continues to dominate at 36 years old. The righty is coming off a strong performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He threw 6⅔ innings and only gave up one earned run on four hits. Darvish has only allowed six earned runs in his last four starts but has had some trouble at points this season. More of his trouble has come on the road. The veteran has a 4.50 road ERA and has given up six earned runs in 12 innings. Luckily for the Padres, Darvish continues to go deep into games and averages over six innings a start. He will pitch well in this game but will give up a couple of runs in the process.

The Twins have a low team batting average of .220 but have outscored the Padres by three runs this season. Minnesota did not enter the season with a highly touted lineup but has seen productive performances from Jose Miranda, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Trevor Larnach, and Joey Gallo. Miranda leads the team with 29 hits, Buxton has a team-leading eight home runs, Correa has 16 RBIs and six doubles, Larnach has 19 RBIs, and Gallo has seven home runs in 27 games. This lineup will not blow you away, but they can be counted on to score a few runs.

Bailey Ober will get the start for the Twins. Ober has only started three games but has been sensational in all three. He comes into this matchup with a 0.98 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. The 27-year-old has not faced the most difficult opponents, but any time a pitcher has an ERA below 1.00, you cannot complain. This will be Ober’s stiffest test of the year so far, but he will excel once more.

The Twins are sending a better starter to mound hand and have home-field advantage, so I would bet on them to win this game.

Padres vs Twins - Over/Under Analysis

The over/under for this game is set at eight runs. I expect this to be a lower-scoring game, so I would push towards the under.

The Padres will score three runs today. Two of those runs will come off Bailey Ober. This is not solely a reflection of their hitting. The Padres are not hitting as well as they would like, but they are also facing a hot pitcher who will give them problems at the plate. San Diego will also score a run off the Twins’ bullpen. The Twins’ bullpen has a 3.65 ERA. That is good enough to put them right outside of the top ten. Given their ERA, I would expect them to give up one run.

The Twins will score four runs today. Three of those runs will come off Yu Darvish. As I mentioned above, Darvish is pitching well but has not been perfect. This will be one of those game where he makes a couple of mistakes and allows a couple of runs. The Padres’ bullpen will also allow a run. San Diego’s bullpen is about on the same level as Minnesota’s bullpen, so they will allow a solo home run or a couple of singles leading to a run.

Head-to-Head: San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins

San Diego Padres


Minnesota Twins

Bob Melvin

Head Coach

Rocco Baldelli

19-18 (3rd in NL West)


20-17 (1st in AL Central)


Xander Bogaerts (.272)

Batting AVG

Bryon Buxton (.226)

Xander Bogaerts (6)

Home Runs

Byron Buxton (8)

Manny Machado (18)


Bryon Buxton, Trevor Larnach (19)

Juan Soto (.406)


Byron Buxton (.331)

Xander Bogaerts (37)


Jose Miranda (29)

Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha (3)


Joe Ryan (5)

Seth Lugo  (3.18)


Sonny Gray (1.35)

Yu Darvish (40)


Pablo Lopez (62)

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How To Watch San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins

  • What - San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins
  • Where - Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • When - Thursday, May 11, 1:10 PM
  • How to Watch - MLB Network, MLB.TV
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Max Heering

Sports Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Max Heering graduated from the University of Kansas Sport Management program in May 2020. Max follows and writes about the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, MLS, college football, and college basketball. In his free time, you can catch Max draining threes on the basketball court.
Nationality: American
Education: Sports Management
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