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Rangers vs Red Sox Odds: Few Runs Expected at Fenway Tonight

Written by: Michael Savio
Published July 5, 2023
11 min read
  • Jon Gray has a 1.99 ERA on the road this season
  • Brayan Bello had a 2.14 ERA in June
  • Corey Seager has a .277 average during night games this season

Rangers vs Red Sox Odds

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!  

Team

Run Line

Total

Moneyline

Texas Rangers

-1.5 (+158)

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Over 9.5 (-105)

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-105

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Boston Red Sox

+1.5 (-190)

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Under 9.5 (-115)

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-115

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Rangers vs Red Sox Pick

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Rangers vs Red Sox prediction

Rangers vs Red Sox Predictions

While we have a game featuring two loaded lineups, the pitching matchup will likely lead to a quiet night in Boston. The Rangers will have veteran Jon Gray on the mound, who is having one of the best seasons of his career. On the other side is the young Brayan Bello, who is amid his breakout season. We think both arms cruise tonight, leading to a low-scoring battle. 

Texas Rangers Predictions

Though they were able to get the win last night, the Rangers have been trending in the wrong direction over the previous week. While their offense has remained solid, they have been far better at home than on the road this season. Their team batting average is over 20 points lower on the road, where they have hit just 41 of their 117 home runs this season. Add that to the fact that they’ll be seeing Bello for the first time, and we are happy to lock in the underbet for tonight.

The Rangers will send veteran Jon Gray (6-4, 3.21 ERA) to the mound tonight. The 31-year-old was electric in May but came back down to Earth in June. Gray had a 3.99 ERA last month and has allowed five or more earned runs in two of his previous three starts. Those numbers are a bit concerning, but most of those struggles have come at home. Gray has a sterling 1.99 ERA across seven road starts this season and a 2.95 ERA across nine-day games. The Red Sox have some talent in their lineup, but not enough to overcome Gray tonight.

Our player to watch tonight is Corey Seager. The Rangers’ shortstop is one of baseball's hottest hitters, but most of that production has come during day games. Seager owns a .430 across 100-day game at-bats, while he owns a .277 average over 112-night game at-bats. Add that to the fact that he has yet to see Bello, and we see him being contained against the Sox tonight.

Boston Red Sox Predictions

Before losing to Texas last night, the Sox had an impressive sweep at Toronto over the weekend. A reason for that was their offense coming back to life, but that momentum vanished yesterday against the Rangers. Before the Toronto series, Boston had scored just four runs over their previous four games. Now they’ll face a strong veteran arm on the mound, leading to another quiet outing for this offense.

Red Sox starter Brayan Bello (5-5, 3.08 ERA) is a big reason we love the under here. The 24-year-old has been incredible in his second year in the big leagues and is improving as the season progresses. Bello had a 2.14 ERA in June, registering a quality start in all five appearances. Those starts came against good offenses, including the Yankees (twice) and the Rays. He has allowed just three runs over his previous three starts (20 ⅔ innings). Add that to the fact that he owns a 2.14 ERA across nine-night games, and you can see why we love this bet.

Our player to watch for Boston is Rafael Devers. The slugger has been hot lately, but we see that ending tonight for two reasons. One is that he is only hitting .241 during night games this season, as opposed to his .282 average during the day. The second is that most of his home runs have been coming on the road this season. Devers has not faced Gray in the past, which we think works against him tonight. Expect Devers to cool off tonight, leading to a low run total for the Sox.

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How to Watch

  • What: Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox
  • When: Wednesday, July 5 at 7:10 PM EST
  • Where: Fenway Park in Boston, MA
  • How to Watch: Bally Sports Southwest, NESN,  MLB.tv
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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

412 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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