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Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
My Pick: Over 9.0 (-120)
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This matchup features two of the best offenses in all of baseball. They both rank in the top five in the league in runs and batting average, which has led to much of their success in 2023. Both lineups have been hot over the last couple of weeks, and tonight's pitching matchup will give them plenty of chances to put up monster run totals. Expect to see some fireworks in Arizona tonight, leading to us taking the over.
The Rays have one of the top offenses in the MLB. They rank among the top three in the league in slugging percentage, on-base percentage, batting average, stolen bases, RBIs, home runs, and runs scored. They have three players in the top ten betting favorites to win the AL MVP, and they are supported by one of the most talented lineups in baseball. Now they’ll be facing a rookie Diamondbacks starter who has struggled, which means you can expect a big night from this offense.
While picking one player to highlight on the Rays is hard, we believe Yandy Diaz will do the most damage this evening. The first baseman has maintained an average over .300 and has a .328 average against lefties like Tommy Henry. While he doesn’t hit many home runs, his position atop this talented lineup means he generates a lot of offense. Expect to see him have another big night tonight.
The Rays will have Zach Eflin (9-3, 3.35 ERA) starting tonight. The veteran has been good in 2023 but has had some concerning struggles when pitching on the road. Eflin is 1-3 with a 5.08 ERA across six road starts this season. That includes a start in Oakland where he allowed four runs over 4 ⅔ innings against the league's worst offense. He has also struggled more with night games (4.19 ERA) which will be the case tonight with their late start. While the Rays’ starter has been good overall, these factors will cost him tonight against a great Arizona offense.
The Diamondbacks enter this series as one of the hottest offenses in the league. They scored at least five runs in all seven games and now have the fourth most runs scored in all of baseball. The Diamondbacks' lineup is filled with players that can get on base, and they have three players with at least 14 home runs and an average above .280. That list includes rookie Corbin Carroll, who is playing his way into the NL MVP conversation.
If you haven’t been paying attention to Corbin Carroll, now is the time. The 22-year-old rookie has been incredible in 2023 and contributes across multiple categories. He has started to hit for average along and power, plus the left fielder has already stolen over 20 bases this season. While he is only beginning his career, Carroll has shown he has what it takes to be the centerpiece of an offense. Look for Carroll to jump on Eflin tonight to add to his RBI total.
The D-backs will have the young Tommy Henry (4-1, 4.31 ERA) on the bump tonight. The 25-year-old is having a decent 2023 campaign in his first entire season in the MLB. Henry has back-to-back quality starts but was hammered hard at the beginning of June. He allowed 10 runs on 14 hits across nine innings in his first two starts of the month, showing that the young arm is vulnerable to good offenses. Few are better than Tampa, so Henry will likely be in for a rough outing tonight, making the over an easy bet.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
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