2020 Alsco 300 at Charlotte (Xfinity Series) Predictions & Odds

• As much difficulty as Kyle Busch has had in the NASCAR Cup Series at Charlotte Motor Speedway, his performance in the Xfinity Series resides at the opposite end of the spectrum.
• After the victory at Darlington, Chase Briscoe is well on his way toward achieving his stated preseason goals.
• Absence of NASCAR Cup Series regulars in the Xfinity Series race opens the door for series regulars.

It will be tough for the Alsco 300 to match the drama or the emotion of last Thursday’s rain-delayed re-opening NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Darlington. Two days after his wife Marissa suffered a miscarriage, 25-year-old Chase Briscoe swapped the lead with heavy favorite Kyle Busch over the final two laps at the Lady in Black before beating Busch to the finish line by .086 seconds.

After racing on an abrasive surface in the South Carolina sandhills, the series comes to a relatively smooth surface at Charlotte, where tire wear isn’t as much of a factor as it was at Darlington. Nevertheless, teams in all three national series will run the same right-side tire as they ran on Thursday. The left sides are the same run by Cup and Xfinity teams last October at Kansas Speedway.

Monday’s 300-mile event features stages of 45, 45, and 110 laps. In the absence of qualifying, Ross Chastain will start on the pole, having won the draw among the top 12 drivers under NASCAR’s Adverse Conditions Line Up Eligibility policy.

NASCAR Xfinity Series at Charlotte May 25 Odds

The odds for the Alsco 300 are provided by DraftKings.

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, May 25

Kyle Busch (-134) boasts a record eight NASCAR Xfinity Series victories at Charlotte Motor Speedway. In 25 starts at the 1.5-mile intermediate speedway, he has claimed 21 top-10 finishes, at one point posting 16 in a row. As such, he’s the odds-on favorite to add to his series-record 96 wins on Monday.

A closer look inside the numbers, however, reveals vulnerability. Busch hasn’t won at Charlotte since 2013, and since that victory, he has competed in the spring 300-miler at CMS only twice, in 2014 and 2018, finishing third and eighth, respectively.

In addition, only one Toyota driver—Denny Hamlin in 2016—has won an Xfinity race at Charlotte since Busch swept both races at CMS seven years ago. But none of this is enough to mitigate against Busch’s status as the heavy favorite to win on Monday night. He’s 0-for-2 in Xfinity races so far this season. That means he’s overdue.

Chase Briscoe Is on Track for Spectacular Season

Chase Briscoe (+450) has earned his ride in the No. 98 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford on talent. The flip side of his blue-collar mentality is a basic insecurity. It’s not that Briscoe doubts his own ability, but he believes that he’s one bad season away from oblivion. Earlier this year, before the coronavirus pandemic halted the racing season, Briscoe said as much.

“I feel like it’s kind of my make-or-break season,” said Briscoe, who has moved into the upper echelons of the Xfinity Series with the departure of current Cup rookies Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, and John Hunter Nemechek. “Obviously, I’m not going to say it’s a failure if we win six or whatever, but I feel like we certainly… if we do our job right, we can win eight to 10 races, and I’m confident with that statement.”

After his victory over Busch at Darlington, Briscoe is the only two-time winner in five Xfinity races this year. If he can maintain that pace, he’ll achieve his preseason goals and won’t have to worry about his future in the sport.

Absence of Cup Stars Opens Door for Xfinity Regulars

Now that NASCAR has limited the participation of Cup heavyweights to five Xfinity races per year, we’ve seen a paradigm shift in the competition, as Cup stars carefully pick and choose the races they’ll enter. Before Reddick won last season’s oval race at CMS, the last full-time Xfinity driver to win at Charlotte was Mike Bliss in 2009.

On Monday night, Xfinity drivers will have only one Cup superstar to beat—Kyle Busch, who has opted to run all seven races in the 11-day first installment of NASCAR’s re-opening. With no qualifying, Busch will start 18th on the grid by lot, a far less advantageous position that he typically occupies.

Busch can be beaten. Briscoe proved that on Thursday afternoon.

Our Pick

Austin Cindric (+1800)—We acknowledge Kyle Busch’s superiority and expect him to win the race, but Cindric is the best bet on the board. Team Penske drivers won this race in 2017 (Ryan Blaney) and 2018 (Brad Keselowski) driving the same quality equipment Cindric will have on Monday. In a race where all but Busch and Briscoe are long shots, Cindric offers the best value.