NBA Predictions Today: Who Will Go Ahead in the Western Conference Finals?

The Western Conference Finals continue Friday night in a pivotal Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. The series is tied 1-1, giving the Spurs a chance to maintain an edge in the series if they can hold serve at home.

Of course, the Thunder is still the reigning champs, so there is every reason to believe they can rise to the occasion. In a game that could easily go either way, we have our best predictions for Friday’s Game 3.

Best NBA Predictions for Friday, May 22

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Spurs Beat Thunder by 2.5 Points in Game 3 (Yes, 50%)

Oklahoma City made an adjustment after Game 1, and now it’s San Antonio’s chance to do the same. A lackluster second quarter by the Spurs was the only difference between the teams in Game 2. The other three quarters were highly competitive, with the Spurs actually having a slight edge.

Injuries could play a key role in Game 3, as De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are game-time decisions for the Spurs, while Jalen Williams may be forced to miss the game for the Thunder. A lot could hinge on the availability and effectiveness of those players. However, home-court advantage will also be a big factor, which is why we’re backing the Spurs in Game 3. San Antonio has the second-best home record (behind Oklahoma City) this season and is 24-19-1 against the spread as a home favorite. With a small spread, the Spurs don’t need to win by a big margin to cover the spread.

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Spurs vs. Thunder Over 218.5 Total Points in Game 3 (No, 50%)

This pick definitely goes against the grain. San Antonio’s last seven games have all hit the over, while eight of Oklahoma City’s 10 playoff games have hit the over. However, the injured players could end up hurting both teams offensively. Also, the Spurs are a different team defensively at home. Those factors could end up limiting the point total just enough to keep things under 218.5 points.

In their home playoff games, the Spurs have allowed no more than 106 points. In fact, their opponent has only reached 100 points twice in six home playoff games. Granted, the Thunder is far better than either the Trail Blazers or Timberwolves. But this will also be the toughest road environment that Oklahoma City has faced during the playoffs. The Thunder may not execute at their highest level offensively, especially with a rim protector like Victor Wembanyama. That’s enough to lean toward the under in Game 3.

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Victor Wembanyama 15+ Rebounds in Game 3 (Yes, 49%)

Wembanyama’s rebounding numbers during the playoffs have been off the charts. After averaging 11.5 rebounds per game during the regular season, he’s been even more active and aggressive on the boards during the playoffs. He grabbed 24 rebounds in San Antonio’s double-overtime win in Game 1 and then had 17 in Game 2.

Frankly, 15 rebounds is a rather conservative estimate for Wembanyama. Since the start of the conference semifinals, he’s reached at least 15 rebounds in six of eight games. The two games he didn’t hit that mark were largely because his minutes were limited. Surely, he won’t be playing limited minutes in Game 3, which is why we believe that Wembanyama reaching 15 rebounds is close to a sure thing.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists in Game 3 (Yes, 55%)

If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. We’ve targeted Gilgeous-Alexander’s assist numbers in each of the first two games of this series, and we’re going to keep doing that until he lets us down. He was off the charts with 12 assists in Game 1’s double-overtime affair, following that up with nine assists in Game 2. That makes eight assists a safe target for Game 3.

In 10 playoff games, Gilgeous-Alexander has hit that number seven times. He could have easily gotten there nine times if his minutes hadn’t been limited in a couple of games because Oklahoma City had such a big lead. Since this is likely to be a close game, Gilgeous-Alexander will play more than enough minutes to reach eight assists. There’s no sign that he’s going to stop looking for teammates and start taking more shots, so we feel confident he’ll hit his mark on assists once again.

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