Best NBA Predictions Today: Who Has the Edge in Critical Game 5 of Western Conference Finals?

The Eastern Conference Finals ended up being a dud, with the Knicks sweeping the Cavs in four games. Luckily, the Western Conference Finals are more than making up for it. This series has been a fascinating back-and-forth affair, tied 2-2 ahead of a pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday.

It feels like either team could win tonight’s game and the series, so we dug deep to come up with our predictions and player props for Game 5 between the Thunder and Spurs.

Best NBA Predictions for Tuesday, May 26

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Thunder Beats Spurs by 4.5 in Game 5 (Yes, 53%)

San Antonio appears to have stolen the momentum in this series after a convincing 21-point win in Game 4. But the Thunder still deserve the benefit of the doubt, especially with Game 5 at home. After all, Oklahoma City responded to a loss in Game 1 by winning and covering the spread in Game 2. They made the necessary adjustments and can do so again in Game 5.

The interesting thing about this series is that, other than the double-overtime thriller in Game 1, no game has come down to the wire. Every other game has been decided by at least nine points, with the winning margin increasing with every game. One way or another, one team gains an advantage and closes out a comfortable win. Based on that trend, if the Thunder wins Game 5, it’ll be by a comfortable margin that covers the spread.

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Thunder vs. Spurs Over 215.5 Total Points in Game 5 (No, 47%)

Is Game 4 an aberration or a sign of things to come? The first three games of this series all finished with at least 235 total points, going well beyond the pre-game point total. Yet, Game 4 fell well short with a mere 185 total points. The deeper we get in this series, the more it makes sense for defense to become a focal point. Plus, the teams will get to know each other better, making it harder for offenses to find answers.

On top of that, the Thunder is dealing with injuries to Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, reducing Oklahoma City’s options. It’s already tough enough for them with Victor Wembanyama defending the rim. On the other side, Oklahoma City is stingy defensively, especially at home. The Spurs didn’t exactly shoot lights out in their Game 4 win. They also might prefer another low-scoring, grind-it-out game, leading to another low point total in Game 5.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists in Game 5 (Yes, 56%)

For just the third time in the playoffs, Gilgeous-Alexander fell short of eight assists in Game 4, only collecting seven helpers. But he also played fewer minutes than in any other game in this series because the Thunder had no chance in the fourth quarter. Had Gilgeous-Alexander played his normal allotment of minutes, he surely would have reached this threshold, so we’ll stick with this prop bet for Game 5.

Keep in mind that he’s had at least nine assists in every other game this series, including two games in which he reached 12 assists. Before Game 4, he had gone five straight games with at least eight assists. Plus, with Oklahoma City’s injuries, the San Antonio defense will step up its efforts to get the ball out of his hands, giving Gilgeous-Alexander even more assist opportunities. 

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De’Aaron Fox 4+ Rebounds in Game 5 (Yes, 54%)

It’s great to have Fox as an option for prop bets again. The one thing he’s excelled at the most since returning from injury in Game 3 is crashing the boards. Fox grabbed seven rebounds in Game 3 and then gave himself a double-double with 10 rebounds in Game 4. After that, stacking Fox’s rebounds or going for a more lucrative bet isn’t a bad idea, but we’ll take the safe option with Fox getting at least four rebounds.

Before missing time with an injury, Fox collected at least four rebounds in six of San Antonio’s 11 playoff games. It appears to be a point of emphasis for him, perhaps because his ankle is still hindering other parts of his game. Either way, there’s no reason to doubt that a player who averaged 3.8 rebounds per game during the regular season can grab at least four boards in a critical playoff game.

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