NBA Player Props Today: Spurs vs. Thunder Game 2 Picks

The NBA conference finals couldn’t have gotten off to a more dramatic start than they did, and I’ve returned to share my best player props today for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 2.

The San Antonio Spurs shocked the defending champs on their home floor, securing a double-overtime victory behind a heroic 41 points and 24 rebounds from Victor Wembanyama. This stunning Game 1 upset has already caused a massive shift in the latest NBA Western Conference odds, meaning all of the pressure is now on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who already dropped home-court and are hoping to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole.

One individual who needs to step up is the newly-announced back-to-back MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had 24 points, 12 assists, and five steals in Game 1, but who also shot just 7-23 (30.4 percent) from the floor.

With Game 2 on the horizon, here are my top Spurs vs. Thunder player prop picks today for Wednesday, May 20.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 20

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Chet Holmgren under 8.5 rebounds (+104) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Putting 6-foot-5-and-shorter wings and guards on Wembanyama didn’t come close to working in Game 1. The obvious pivot for Mark Daigneault is not to overthink the situation, and to make his 7-foot-1 Defensive Player of the Year runner-up, Holmgren, Wemby’s primary defender in Game 2. 

Assuming this is what plays out, Holmgren will spend less time with eyes on shooters and battling against much smaller players for rebounds, and more time going body-to-body with his 7-foot-4 counterpart. He only had eight rebounds in the first meeting despite playing 41 minutes in double-overtime, and I think there’s real value here.

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De’Aaron Fox over 14.5 points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While much was made of Dylan Harper playing excellent basketball as he eyes up potentially taking the starting point guard spot, Fox is coming into a great situation. While this would be his first time playing since injuring his ankle in the previous round, he will be fresh from five days off, while everyone else will have just played two extra periods on Monday night.

An ounce of lethargy would play to Fox’s advantage, since he’s one of the quickest players in the sport. He went over in three of five regular-season matchups with the Thunder, and he also beat this line in five straight games.

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Victor Wembanyama over 1.5 threes (+148) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Wemby only took two threes in the entirety of Game 1, and he only made one, a game-tying transition heave from the logo with about 30 seconds left in overtime. He’s now cashed the under in seven of 11 playoff games thus far, only shooting 34.9 percent from deep in the process.

If I’m right that Holmgren will spend more time defending the big Frenchman, he won’t be able to run to the block and immediately post up against smaller defenders as he did on seemingly every possession in the second half and extra time in Game 1. Putting a bigger defender on him would force him out onto the perimeter, leading to him taking — and hopefully making — more three-pointers.

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Jalen Williams over 4.5 assists (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Spurs are willing to test the Thunder’s secondary creation outside of their drive-and-kick style, which has been neutered by Wemby’s presence around the rim. After Gilgeous-Alexander’s 12 assists in Game 1, Ajay Mitchell was next with five, and Williams only had three.

With Gilgeous-Alexander struggling to get going as a scorer in the first meeting, I believe that OKC will put him off the ball more often and run actions to get him in motion when he receives the ball. Williams, who played 37 minutes in Game 1, is the most natural fit for that adjustment, plus, he averaged 5.5 assists per game during the regular season.

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Isaiah Hartenstein over 4.5 rebounds (+108) at FanDuel Sportsbook

I rightly bet the under on Hartenstein’s scoring in Game 1, believing that he would have a limited role because of the nature of the matchup. He only played 12 minutes and finished with two points, two rebounds, and two assists in the loss.

The issue isn’t that Hartenstein can’t play, but rather that the Thunder can’t play their double-big lineup against the Spurs. I expect to see Hartenstein deployed on Wembanyama when Holmgren is out of the game, and for him to vacuum in his average rate of rebounds, which would put him over 4.5 in the time he’s on the floor.

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