The NBA conference finals couldn’t have gotten off to a more dramatic start than they did, and I’ve returned to share my best player props today for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 2.
The San Antonio Spurs shocked the defending champs on their home floor, securing a double-overtime victory behind a heroic 41 points and 24 rebounds from Victor Wembanyama. This stunning Game 1 upset has already caused a massive shift in the latest NBA Western Conference odds, meaning all of the pressure is now on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who already dropped home-court and are hoping to avoid falling into a 0-2 hole.
One individual who needs to step up is the newly-announced back-to-back MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who had 24 points, 12 assists, and five steals in Game 1, but who also shot just 7-23 (30.4 percent) from the floor.
With Game 2 on the horizon, here are my top Spurs vs. Thunder player prop picks today for Wednesday, May 20.
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| Best NBA Prop Bets Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Chet Holmgren Under 8.5 Rebounds | +104 | Oklahoma City Thunder 68% |
| De’Aaron Fox Over 14.5 Points | -102 | San Antonio Spurs 33% |
| Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 Threes | +148 | San Antonio Spurs 33% |
| Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Assists | -110 | Oklahoma City Thunder 68% |
| Isaiah Hartenstein Over 4.5 Rebounds | +108 | Oklahoma City Thunder 68% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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At first glance, I hated this line — but after thinking it through, I see the potential for serious value. The Knicks were only 0.2 assists per game away from allowing the same amount as the Detroit Pistons, who just held Mitchell under in five of seven games last round.
The Knicks also held their opponents to 31.2 percent shooting from beyond the arc, limiting Mitchell’s ability to get drive-and-kick assists to shooters. With the Knicks being the much more rested team, and the Cavaliers coming off an emotional seven-game series only to head back out on the road, I am growing more fond of this pick by the minute.
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Depending on Harden in the playoffs is never a fun time, which he proved once again by dropping nine points on 20 percent shooting in the all-important Game 7 against the Pistons. That aside, he went over in five of seven games in the last round and in four of seven games in the Cavs’ playoff opener against the Toronto Raptors.
While the Knicks allowed the fewest points per game in the playoffs, Harden can be an offense unto himself. He scored 20 points in his only matchup with the Knicks shortly after he was traded mid-season, and he should take enough shots to get over, even if he does so inefficiently.
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Alright, it’s hard to defend what Towns did recently. He scored 17, 20, eight, and 17 points in the last round, while averaging 17.4 points per game in the playoffs, the lowest of his career since 2017-18. However, he never played more than 27 minutes in the last round and was often in foul trouble.
The Cavaliers held Towns under this number in two of three regular-season games, but he also played more than 29 minutes just one time and never got into foul trouble. Cleveland should be a little lethargic, given the circumstances, while Towns has the skill to punish the Cavs’ bigs on the interior and from the perimeter.
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From a broader perspective, if I believe that the Cavaliers will be tired, they should then miss more shots and create more rebounding opportunities. Anunoby might’ve gone under in two of three matchups with the Cavs, but he also had 14 rebounds in one of those meetings, and he went over in six of eight playoff appearances.
The Cavs’ bigs are inconsistently aggressive on the glass, while Anunoby is always looking to get his hands on the ball. He dealt with a hamstring injury in the last round, but if he’s healthy, he should play close to, if not more than 40 minutes tonight.
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The Cavaliers let their opponents shoot 37.3 percent from beyond the arc in the playoffs, which ranks 13th of 16 teams that made it into the bracket. They also let Brunson cash the over the last two times he saw them, as he went 9/19 (47.4 percent) in those contests.
Brunson sank at least three three-pointers in three of four games in the previous round and in seven of 10 games in the playoffs. James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are not great perimeter defenders, and Brunson only needs a sliver of space to splash from deep, especially while shooting 40.9 percent from range in these playoffs.
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