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Duke vs. Miami Prediction: Hurricanes Look to Upset Eighth-Ranked Blue Devils

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published February 21, 2024
10 min read

On Wednesday night, the Duke Blue Devils will travel to Miami to face the Hurricanes. Duke is the eighth-ranked team in the country and dominates nearly every team.

The Blue Devils have won four straight games and are 11-3 against ACC opponents. They’re one of the favorites in the conference and are looking for a deep run in March. 

The Hurricanes are in a different spot. They have a young team, and they’re struggling to beat the better teams in the ACC. Miami is 15-11 and 6-9 in the conference. 

The Blue Devils have a great team, and they can cruise on Wednesday if they play their best. Miami has some explosive players, including Norchad Omier, but they need a fantastic game plan to upset Duke. 

Here, we will break down the game and our best bets for Duke vs. Miami.

Baylor forward Jalen Bridges scores against West Virginia

Duke vs. Miami Betting Odds for Wednesday, February 21

Bookmakers on FanDuel have set a strong line for Wednesday’s game between Duke and Miami. The Blue Devils are a 5.5-point favorite, a typical number for a good team on the road against an average opponent. 

The Blue Devils are beatable but have traditionally prevailed in these spots. Duke is -220 on the moneyline, while the Hurricanes are +180. The total is listed at 150.5, with more money coming in on the under. 

Based on these teams' play styles, the total is a tough number to read. Miami is 14-12, and Duke is 14-11 to the under, so we don’t have a solid lean on either side of the 150.5-point total.

Teams Spread Moneyline Total 
Duke Blue Devils -5.5 (-105) -220 Over 150.5 (-105)
Miami Hurricanes +5.5 (-115) +180 Under 150.5 (-115)

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets if you wager $5 on your first bet and win.

Duke is +200 to win the ACC this season, which is second behind North Carolina at -260. Few teams outside the Tar Heels have made the Blue Devils look silly this season. 

Duke is a hard-nosed team that plays excellent defense and has carried them to a 20-5 record. The Blue Devils have won four straight games, and two of their four victories have come by double digits in this span. 

They have feasted on the bottom half of the conference, and this is precisely where Miami sits with a few weeks left in the regular season.

The Hurricanes were having a decent campaign until their recent stretch. They have lost four straight games, but their schedule has been demanding, facing Virginia and North Carolina. 

However, their last game was a tremendous get-right spot, and they fell flat on their face at Boston College. There is nothing special about the Eagles, but the Hurricanes seemed to be mentally in Miami throughout the entire game. 

The difference in the game came at the charity strike. Miami was horrendous, shooting under 60% from the line, while Boston College was 14 of 19. 

The Eagles weren’t great from the line, but they did what they needed to do to win. Miami also turned the ball over four more times than their opponent, and Boston College created 17 points from these chances. 

For Miami to have a chance to win, they must be strong from the line and limit their turnovers. We can’t count on this happening against a quality Duke team that creates tons of winning chances for 40 minutes. 

Miami matches up well with Duke in multiple areas, but the Blue Devils are slightly better in many key categories. They’re allowing five points left in the backcourt, as shown in their KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency metric. 

The Blue Devils have the 25th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency from KenPom. Miami is 112th in this category, and we expect this gap to show throughout the game. If Duke were at home, they would be upwards of a double-digit favorite, and a significant reason for this is their defensive strength. 

The player to watch for the Blue Devils is Kyle Filipowski. The sophomore center averages 17 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. He is also shooting nearly 50% from the field this season. 

He has also been consistent on the road, so the splits stay consistent with Filipowski. Filipowski will be matched up with Omier throughout the game. The 6’7 forward has also been dominant, but if these two neutralize each other throughout the game, Duke still has more talent elsewhere.

The role players for Miami must step up their game to give them a chance, and we don’t see it happening against a team ready for a deep March Madness run. 

Duke vs. Miami Prediction and Betting Pick

The KenPom Ratings are the betting bible for college basketball. Traditional stats show Miami can hang with Duke throughout the game, but the KenPom Ratings tell a different story. 

The Hurricanes are receiving 5.5 points, but this isn’t enough in our minds. Miami is the 80th-ranked team in the nation, according to KenPom, while Duke is 11th. 

The Blue Devils fit all the criteria to win a National Championship. Great teams beat inferior opponents, even on the road, so lay the points with the Blue Devils. 

How to Watch Duke vs. Miami

  • When: Wednesday, Feb. 21 @ 7:00 PM ET

  • Where: Watsco Center, Miami, FL

  • TV: ESPN

  • Streaming: ESPN+

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Tanner Kern

345 Articles

Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.

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