Indiana vs Miami Prediction, Picks & Odds | NCAA Tournament

March Madness is underway! There have been a number of unexpected upsets already, including Round of 64 losses for No. 1 Purdue, No. 2 Arizona, and No. 4 Virginia. Will we see more this weekend? A Sweet 16 birth is on the line for Indiana and Miami in this No. 4 versus No. 5 matchup. 

The Hoosiers led against Kent State for the final 35 minutes, while Miami closed its game versus Drake on a 16-1 run, winning by seven points. The winner of this game plays either No. 1 Houston or No. 9 Auburn. Check out the NCAA Tournament Round of 32 matchup on Indiana versus Miami below, featuring key players and stats for both teams, as well as the odds, picks, and best bets!

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#4 Indiana Preview

Indiana was impressively in control from the beginning until the end of its Round of 64 game against Kent State; it never felt like the game was hanging in the balance. The Hoosiers were carried by the frontcourt duo of Trayce Jackson-Davis, a first-team All-American, and Race Thompson. Jackson-Davis finished the game with 24 points, 11 rebounds, five assists, and five blocks; his dominance was evident on both ends of the floor, but it was expected. 

However, Thompson’s 20-point and nine-rebound outing on 8-11 shooting was not expected. This season, Thompson has posted fewer than eight points per game; this explosion matches his season high, and it was in the biggest moment. Another player who stepped up last game was senior Miller Kopp, a 45% three-point shooter who does not have as much volume as one might think. Kopp is a vital piece to this team, as he is the most reliable shooter from behind the arc for a team that does not take many three-pointers.

Key Players & Key Stats

Trayce Jackson-Davis is the unquestioned leader for the Hoosiers on both ends of the floor; he has averaged roughly 23 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, and three blocks per game in his past 21 outings. However, Jackson-Davis needs help, especially in the form of three-point shooters, as teams often send double-teams to him in the post. 

That is where Trey Galloway (44.4% from three), Miller Kopp (44.5%), Tamar Bates (38.9%), and Jalen Hood-Schifino (34%) have to step up, especially against a high-octane Hurricanes squad. Besides other players stepping up offensively, Indiana needs two things: crash the defensive glass and defend the three-point line. The Hoosiers rank 131st in opponent 3P% and 181st in defensive rebounding percentage.

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#5 Miami Preview

The Hurricanes breathed a huge sigh of relief when they found out that forward Norchad Omier would be available for their first round game against Drake, a formidable No. 12 seed. Omier alleviated concerns about his ankle sprain even further by posting a double-double, with 12 points and 14 rebounds. Omier joined Wooga Poplar and Nijel Pack in scoring double-figures; however, the Hurricanes’ two leading scorers, Jordan Miller and Isaiah Wong, only combined for 12 points.

While it is promising that other Miami players stepped up and answered the bell, it will need Miller and Wong to perform at a much higher level to beat a hot Indiana team. Miami’s six total assists in their first game represent a concern, but it protected the ball (nine turnovers), crashed the defensive glass (two offensive rebounds allowed), and persevered despite shooting 10% worse from the field than Drake.

Key Players & Key Stats

As mentioned above, Jordan Miller (15.0 points) and Isaiah Wong (15.8 points) are the leading scorers for this high-powered offense that ranks 12th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Miami’s constant weakness this season has been on defense, ranking 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 213th in opponent eFG%, and 255th in opponent two-point percentage. It is particularly concerning that the Hurricanes allow such a high shooting percentage against a team that ranks ninth in two-point rate and 36th in eFG%.

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Odds, Previews, Picks, Best Bets for #4 Indiana vs #5 Miami

If the Hoosiers want to advance to the Sweet 16, they have to clean up their defensive rebounding; they allowed Kent State, a similarly sized team, to grab 19 offensive rebounds. That Kent State game could have looked much different if the Golden Flashes didn’t shoot 31.9% from the field. Miami ranks 85th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, which is quite comparable to Kent State. However, Indiana does have an advantage in that the Hurricanes looked like a mess offensively, which is usually their biggest overall strength, and hardly were able to generate anything until they full-court pressed. 

As a matter of fact, Miami finished its game with just six assists, an abysmal number for an NCAA Tournament team, especially a No. 5 seed. Indiana’s defense (43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency) is also comparable to Drake’s (41st), so if Miami doesn’t move the ball around more than its last game, it will struggle to get clean looks offensively. 

The Hoosiers’ defense is centered around filtering in players to make them score over or around Trayce Jackson-Davis, one of the premier rim protectors in the nation. Jackson-Davis finished last game with five blocks, so he might dissuade the Hurricanes to penetrate. This game is going to be tight and hard-fought from beginning to end; it seems highly unlikely that either team runs away with this one. Still, the slight lean goes to Indiana, as it looked much more consistent in its opening game.

#4 Indiana vs #5 Miami How to Watch

Location: Albany, New York

Game Time & Date: Sun, Mar 19, at 8:40 p.m. EST

TV Network: TNT

Streaming: TNT