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Edey is averaging 30 points, 16.3 rebounds, 2.0 SPG, and 1.8 blocks per game
NC State has won nine straight games
DJ Horne made over 40% of his three-point attempts during the season
Tonight’s first Final Four matchup brings us a classic battle between David and Goliath. On one side is an upstart NC State team that has been playing for their postseason lives since the end of the regular season. On the other is a Purdue team with championship expectations, led by a true goliath down low.
If you are looking to wager on tonight’s matchup, we have you covered. Below, we’ll share the latest odds and insights for the game, along with our favorite bet.
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The Boilermakers have been as good as advertised during the NCAA Tournament. They have very impressive wins, including against Utah State, Gonzaga, and Tennessee. They have shown why they are a top seed in the tournament. However, they’ll face a very different test in NC State tonight. The Wolfpack is a team that has outperformed all expectations, meaning they have nothing to lose. That makes them dangerous despite Purdue's massive talent advantage.
There is a lot that the Boilermakers have done well, but Zach Edey is why they are in the Final Four. The big man is averaging 30 points, 16.3 rebounds, 2.0 SPG, and 1.8 blocks per game during the tournament. That includes a 40-point performance against a Tennessee team that led the SEC in opponent scoring (67.4 PPG). No team in the country has a player that can go toe-to-toe with Edey, except for NC State.
Aside from Edey, Purdue’s defense has also been crucial to their success. They have held all their opponents to under 69 points, almost all of which are better offensively than the Wolfpack. If Purdue can continue to play defense at this level, this game will get ugly quickly.
Honestly, we can’t believe we’re still writing about NC State. We began following them closely at the end of the season, and they showed no signs of what they would become. Since finishing the regular season with a 17-14 record, the Wolfpack won the ACC Tournament, giving them an unexpected March Madness birth. Since that magical run, they have crushed Texas Tech, outdueled Oakland, and soundly defeated Marquette and Duke. That gives them a nine-game win streak and makes it hard to bet against them.
Like Purdue, NC State has also thrived on defense. However, DJ Burns Jr. will be the key to tonight’s game. The big man is built like a defensive tackle, which could be the key to containing Edey. While Burns is about seven inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter than the Purdue star, his build makes him hard to move. He can make up for the lack of height by getting physical with Edey, preventing him from getting too close to the basket on both ends of the floor.
If Burns can succeed against Edey, it will open up a lot for the rest of the offense. DJ Horne is a big-time star who made over 40% of his three-point attempts during the season. If Burns can push Edey around, it will open Horne up to do more damage from the outside. That's the recipe that the Wolfpack used during this incredible run, and it could lead to another win tonight.
We don’t know if the Wolfpack can get the win, but they will keep the game close. Teams with nothing to lose, like NC State, are incredibly dangerous, especially to heavy favorites like Purdue. If NC State can get another strong start and punch Purdue in the mouth early, it could lead to a win or at least an easy cover of this large spread.
When: Saturday, April 7 at 6:09 PM EST
Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
TV: TBS
Streaming: March Madness Live App, MAX
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
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