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The Wild Card Round has come and gone, and the following games will take place in the Divisional Round of the 2023-24 NFL postseason:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The winners of these games will decide the Conference Championship matchup.
Below, we have the three best prop bets for this slate.
Getting Jackson with “+” money to score a touchdown is always a confident wager to make. This season, Jackson rushed for over 800 yards and had five touchdowns. This week, he’ll take on a Texans team that’s allowed seven touchdowns this season to opposing quarterbacks on the ground. None of them, except for Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, are even remotely on his level of rushing ability.
The Texans throttled the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card game, but of course, they took on Joe Flacco, who Jackson replaced in Baltimore. Still, he managed 13 rushing yards, and he’s approaching 40 years old.
Players like Russell Wilson have had games of 44 rushing yards and a score against the Texans. Murray, the closest comparison to Jackson, had seven carries for 51 yards and a score.
Look for Jackson to get out there and run and score.
Sticking with Jackson here, we also like him to finish under 1.5 passing touchdowns as he’ll get plenty of production with his legs, and we have to give credit to this Texans defense.
This season, the Texans allow one passing touchdown per game on average, and only four quarterbacks have had multiple passing touchdown days against them—Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Zach Wilson, and Joe Flacco.
While Jackson is arguably better than all of those players (close to Burrow, of course), he has his legs, which account for a lot of offensive production for the Ravens and their league-leading rushing attack, which averaged nearly 157 yards per game this season.
Jackson does have seven games with multiple passing touchdowns this season, including three in his last four games. Still, against the Texans in Week 1, he finished the day with zero passing touchdowns.
A lot has changed since then, but we’ll chalk this one up to one passing touchdown due to the Ravens ground game and Texans defense.
The Packers became the first-ever No. 7 seed to advance out of the Wild Card Round, and a big part of that was thanks to quarterback Jordan Love.
He’s been red hot for over a couple of months. From Week 10, he’s had double-digit passing touchdowns in all but one game, which came against the New York Giants on the road.
Last week against the Cowboys, he had 272 passing yards and three scores.
In that same stretch, he’s had 250 passing yards or more in all but two games.
We’re taking the over on this line of 249.5 yards.
This season, the 49ers allow 232.29 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, but with the Packers as double-digit underdogs, we can expect plenty of passing.
There have been seven quarterbacks this season to have 250 passing yards or more against the 49ers, and there have been just two from Week 14 and on.
In that stretch, they played Geno Smith, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Sam Howell, and Carson Wentz. Smith and Jackson went over 250, and the others that didn’t aren’t exactly surprising. Murray uses his legs plenty and barely has any weapons.
Look for Love, who’s been red hot, to pass for 250 yards or more as a double-digit underdog here. The Packers aren’t going down quietly.
After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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