Commanders vs. Buccaneers Picks: Tampa Bay’s Offense in a Position to Thrive on Sunday Night

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South division title

• Jayden Daniels is projected to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award

• Washington’s defense ranks well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate

After securing the third overall seed in the NFC standings by winning the NFC South division title, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the sixth seed Washington Commanders in the first round of the playoffs. The Bucs' offense will have the opportunity to thrive on Sunday night as Washington’s defense has struggled to play at a competitive level this season. Especially in regard to stopping the run as the Commanders front seven ranks well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds 

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Commanders vs. Buccaneers My Pick

• My Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total Over 26.5 (-120) at Caesars

With the Commanders' defense struggling to stop the run, the Buccaneers' offense should face minimal resistance in their efforts of moving the ball down the field and into scoring territory. Especially if their running back Bucky Irving can command defensive attention to the middle of the field, creating higher-quality passing lanes for Baker Mayfield to exploit. When in the red zone, expect points to be put up on the board at a consistent rate as the Commanders rank near dead last in Def EPA.

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Commanders vs. Buccaneers Predictions 

As previously mentioned, Tampa Bay’s Bucky Irving is expected to play a key role on Sunday as he gets the benefit of gashing a Washington front seven who struggles to stop the run.

While Irving is expected to thrive, the Commanders' Brian Robinson Jr will struggle to match his output as he faces off against a far tougher run stopping unit. Especially with his number of carries expected to decrease as Washington’s best path for success falls on Jayden Daniels arm as he picks apart the Bucs gaps in coverage.

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Best Player Props

Jayden Daniels Over 230.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

With the Bucs front seven excelling at stopping the run, the Commanders may call the pass at a heavier rate to help keep their drives alive. Especially with Tampa Bay’s secondary underwhelming in coverage as their back end enters the playoffs ranked in the bottom half of the board in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

A major reason for their struggles stems from their scheme as the Bucs blitz at one of the heavier rates in the league, increasing the likelihood of them getting burned when in single coverage.

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Brian Robinson Jr Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Speaking of the Bucs front seven, they have arguably been one of the most dominant run stopping units in the league this season as they currently rank 6th overall in Def Rush DVOA, 7th in Rush EPA, 8th in Rush Success Rate, and 7th in Adjusted Line Yards.

Robinson may also see a decrease in his rush attempts with the Commanders expected to call a heavier dose of the pass to help attack the Bucs underwhelming secondary, as well as concede some carries to Austin Ekeler who has recently been activated from IR.

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Bucky Irving Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

On the other side of the field, the Bucs' best path for success revolves around Bucky Irving and his ability to generate rush production as he faces off against a weak Commanders front seven. Defending against the run has been an issue for Washington as the Commanders head into Sunday ranked well below league average in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. Irving also gets the benefit of running behind a dominant run blocking unit as Tampa Bay’s offensive line ranks second overall in Adjusted Line Yards.

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Commanders vs. Buccaneers How to Watch

• When: Sunday, January 12 at 8:00 pm ET

• Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

• Where to Watch: NBC

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Injuries

Commanders Injuries

• LT Brandon Coleman - Questionable

• C Tyler Biadasz - Questionable

• SS Jeremy Chinn - Questionable

Buccaneers Injuries

• TE Cade Otton - Questionable

• LT Tristan Wirfs - Questionable

• LB Lavonte David - Questionable

• CB Jamel Dean - Questionable

• CB Tykee Smith - Questionable

• SS Mike Edwards - Questionable

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