Bears vs. Commanders Prop Bets MNF Week 6: Hail Mary Revenge or Same Sad Story for Chicago?

• The Commanders won last year’s matchup on a clock-expiring Hail Mary, 18-15

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the NFL in yards per carry

• The Commanders are just 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt

The Washington Commanders will host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football in a rematch of one of the NFL’s most memorable recent games that was capped off by a game-winning Hail Mary touchdown.

The Commanders were given life in their race to win the NFC Championship and NFC East thanks to the Eagles’ slip-up, while the Bears are looking to get above .500 and into the race to make the playoffs. Monday’s matchup pits the conference rivals against one another with the headlines of the Caleb Williams-Jayden Daniels showdown, Ben Johnson against Dan Quinn, and the memory of last year’s historic matchup.

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Bears vs. Commanders Prop Bets in MNF Week 6 

Caleb Williams Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-110) at bet365 sportsbook 

Williams went under this line in three of his last four games, but his Bears teammates are about to run into problems. The Commanders have done a very nice job of defending against the run, while Chicago is only 27th in success rate per rushing attempt. 

The Commanders can generate pressure, but their secondary, minus Trey Amos, is suspect. They rank 27th in yards allowed per attempt (7.5) and 23rd in yards allowed per game (235), which gives me the confidence to take Williams over this line.

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Jacory Croskey-Merritt Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at bet365 Sportsbook 

Croskey-Merritt clearly shouldered the RB1 responsibilities for the first time in his career last week, taking 14 carries for 111 yards and holding backup Chris Rodriguez Jr. off the field until the third quarter. The breakout rookie has gone over this line in just two of five games, but he also averaged just 6.3 yards per carry during the games he failed to hit this line.

The Commanders lead the NFL in yards per carry and rushing yards per game, while Croskey-Merritt leads all running backs in yards per carry (6.6). The Bears allowed 6.1 yards per carry, the most in the history of professional football since the Cincinnati Reds in 1934 (yes, you read that team name correctly).

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Olamide Zaccheaus Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-115) at bet365 sportsbook 

I’m really going off the beaten path for this one. Zaccheaus is second in targets and third in receptions for the Bears, although he went under this line in three straight games. Forgetting that the Commanders had the chance to re-sign him after last season but let him walk in free agency, I know a stylistic distinction that could give him the advantage.

The Commanders are slow in the middle of the field due to Bobby Wagner’s age and Frankie Luvu’s lack of coverage instincts. Wagner has been exposed in match coverage and was part of a shaky part of zone coverage in the second level of the defense during last week’s win over the LA Chargers. I think Zaccheaus will be able to find the soft spot in the zone or isolate a slower defender on some sort of crossing pattern and find a way to get over this line.

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Zach Ertz Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200) at bet365 sportsbook 

Ertz did not catch a pass last week, marking his first game since 2014 in which he was shut out. With Terry McLaurin expected to miss his third straight contest and the Bears having an aggressive but porous secondary, Ertz figures to get a solid number of looks.

Without McLaurin, the Commanders’ best man-beating pass-catcher is the 34-year-old Ertz. While I like Croskey-Merritt’s over, the Bears should know to prepare for the run, which could leave Ertz isolated in favorable matchups. He’s Jayden Daniels' most trusted target in high-leverage moments, and there’s a lot of value here.

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