The resurgent Denver Broncos are preparing to take on the struggling Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 10.
The Broncos only have three wins on the year, but they won each of their last two games, including one against the Kansas City Chiefs, while the Bills are 2-3 straight-up and 0-5 against the spread in their last five games.
As the MNF kick-off approaches, we’ve put together a same-game parlay without our favorite betting picks and player props for the matchup.
*Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Use our BetMGM promo code for a $1,500 welcome bonus.
Bills -7.5
Josh Allen anytime TD scorer
Josh Allen 2+ touchdown passes
Russell Wilson over 219.5 passing yards
Stefon Diggs over 84.5 receiving yards
This is a prime opportunity for the Bills to finally bounce back and put a month-plus of agony behind them. They’re at home in primetime against a Broncos defense that gives up more points than any team in the league (28.3). Their playoff hopes are also starting to come into question, and we believe they will come out and dominate.
…And if the Bills are going to secure a win, it should be because of the efforts of Josh Allen. Despite the team recently faltering, he leads the league in QBR and has played consistently well. He also ran for a touchdown in six of his last seven games and is doing his best to carry a team that is underperforming around him.
Last week snapped a five-game streak of Allen throwing 2+ touchdowns. The Broncos, as we mentioned, are known to give up huge chunks of points and are getting an angry but also desperate version of Allen and the Bills. It’s often smart to bet lots of overs from the same team if there’s belief that the team will run up the score, and that’s what we’re sticking to here.
Wilson has not cashed this over in four straight games, and the Bills are 14th in passing yards allowed per game (ironically at 219.6). So why take the over? If Buffalo storms out to an early lead as we expect they will, the Broncos will have to abandon their game plan and go bombs away—even if they’re garbage yards, they’ll count.
Diggs is Allen’s favorite target and has gone over this line in six of nine games. The Broncos also rank just 27th in average passing yards allowed (251.8) and should struggle to contain one of the league’s best wideouts. There’s a chance the Bills blow the game open early and resort to running the ball, so Diggs will have to get to work early.
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