Packers vs. Cowboys Prediction: Micah Parsons Makes His Return

• The Dallas Cowboys traded Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers in the preseason

• Green Bay’s offense were held to just 10 points by the Cleveland Browns in week three

• The Cowboys defense currently ranks 31st overall in Def EPA and 32nd in Def DVOA

In one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the year, Micah Parsons is set to make his return to Dallas after the Cowboys traded the NFL Defensive Player of the Year contender to Green Bay in the offseason. While all eyes will be on Parsons, the Packers offense may hog the spotlight as they face off against a defense who has severely underwhelmed in coverage.

For more NFL Week 4 insights, take a look at our NFL offense rankings, along with our NFL defense rankings.

Packers vs. Cowboys Odds

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Packers vs. Cowboys My Pick

• My Pick: Packers Team Total Over 27.5 (-110) at BetMGM

After being held to just 10 points by the Cleveland Browns in week three, positive regression looms large over the Green Bay Packers' offense as they face off against the Dallas Cowboys who arguably possess the worst defense in the league. Heading into Sunday night, the Cowboys rank 31st overall in Def EPA per play and 32nd in Def DVOA.

Their struggles on defense can be attributed to their lack of pass rush as the Cowboys reside in the bottom half of the board in Pass Rush Win Rate. Their inability to get a push off the line will give Jordan Love extra time in the pocket to let his plays develop which will also drastically increase the quality of his passing lanes while picking apart their gaps in coverage.

Speaking of the Cowboys coverage, injuries to Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland are worth monitoring as either player having to sit out would result in a massive drop off in production for their defense. Especially with their back end already expected to be stretched out thin as the Packers field a deep group of pass catchers. If the Packers' team total crosses through the key number of 28, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Prediction

Green Bay Packers Preview

Since the start of the regular season, Jordan Love has built a case for being listed as one of the top contenders for the NFL MVP award as the Packers quarterback ranks above league average in Quarterback EPA per play and in PFF Grade. Even with his offensive line grading out poorly in Pass Protection, Love has still been able to facilitate at a high level as his current metrics imply.

On the other side of the field, Micah Parsons has made an immediate impact for their defense as the Packers currently lead the league in Def DVOA. With the Cowboys' offensive line ranking 31st in Pass Block PFF Grade, the Packers defense will be able to consistently generate pressure which will lead to an uptick in Dak Prescott’s number of danger worthy throws.

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Dallas Cowboys Preview

While the Cowboys' defense have struggled to find their footing, their offense has actually played at a very high level as they currently rank top-10 in Off DVOA. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, their success on offense hinges on CeeDee Lamb’s availability who is currently listed as doubtful after he injured his ankle in last week’s contest against Chicago.

With CeeDee Lamb expected to sit out, the Packers defense can shade their coverage towards George Pickens while daring one of the other Cowboys’ underwhelming pass catchers to beat them. Factor in the Packers' front seven being able to consistently generate pressure while blitzing at a low rate and their extra bodies across the middle will further reduce the quality of Prescott’s passing lanes.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Injuries

Green Bay Packers

• Aaron Banks - Questionable

• Zach Tom - Questionable

• Devonte Wyatt - Questionable

• Javon Bullard - Questionable

Dallas Cowboys

• CeeDee Lamb - Doubtful

• Tyler Booker - Doubtful

• Kenny Clark - Questionable

• Trevon Diggs - Questionable

• DaRon Bland - Questionable

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys: Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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How to Watch Packers vs. Cowboys

• When: September 28 at 8:20 PM EST

• Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

• How to Watch: NBC

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