Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Best TNF Player Props Week 11

Week 11 of the NFL season is here, and we’re inching closer and closer to the playoffs and figuring out who will be the No. 1 overall pick. The Bears currently hold the No. 1 overall pick, owning the Panthers first-round choice. Rounding out the top three are the New York Giants and New England Patriots. 

Now, we’ll see where we stand after Week 11, but first, here are some early-in-the-week props to consider wagering on.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at DraftKings

In Week 11, Jackson will take on a Bengals defense that allows just 27.44 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

So, why the over here? Well, if you look at the game logs, the Bengals have allowed the over on this number four times this season to Deshaun Watson, Geno Smith, Josh Allen, and, you guessed it, Jackson in Week 2. 

If you look at the other quarterbacks they’ve played, which include Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Joshua Dobbs, and C.J. Stroud, none of them except Dobbs really gets out of the pocket and runs. 

For Jackson, he’s gone over this number five times this season and is averaging 48 rushing yards per game. 

Take the over here. 

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Pick: Joe Burrow Over 12.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings

We looked at the rushing yardage for Jackson, and here, we will also take the over on Joe Burrow’s rushing statistics. 

To start the year, Burrow had a calf injury that prevented him from getting out and running. However, Burrow has had at least 20 rushing yards in two games over the past three weeks. He’s also had at least five attempts in the past three games. 

Against the Ravens, Burrow will face a team that allows the over on this line whenever a quarterback has had three or more attempts this season, except for Week 5 against the Steelers. Other than that, if a quarterback has had three rushing attempts or more, they’ve finished with 20, 24, 17, 26, and 37 rushing yards.

Burrow has that mobility back and has proven to run, and the Ravens also allow this when a quarterback has more than two rush attempts in a game. 

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Pick: Joe Mixon Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at Caesars 

In a time where there are running back committees all over the NFL, one of the rare cases where that isn’t a thing is in Cincinnati with Joe Mixon. There’s no other running back on the roster that ever plays any meaningful snaps, so when it comes to statistical projections, we don’t need to worry about that with Mixon, barring injury, of course. 

Here, his line is 21.5 receiving yards, and we’re leaning over.

This season, the Ravens allow an average of four receptions for approximately 31 yards to running backs. 

This season, Mixon has had 22 or more receiving yards in a game four times, including four times over the last five games. 

Mixon is the guy at running back, so we’ll lean over here due to the lack of competition, and the Ravens season average over this by about nine yards. 

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