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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Best Player Props for Thanksgiving Games 2023

Written by: Richard Janvrin
Published November 23, 2023
6 min read
NFL TNF Prop Bets Week 12

Week 12 of the NFL season is here, and you know what that means—Thanksgiving Day games. 

This year, we have the following matchups:

  • Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

  • Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

  • Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

We have three divisional matchups spread throughout the day, starting at 12:30 pm ET. 

Below, we have the best prop bets for this slate of action. Let’s dive in and make some money while enjoying some great food.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Pick: Sam LaPorta Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at DraftKings

In Week 12, LaPorta will face off against the Packers, a team he had four catches for 56 yards and a touchdown against in Week 4, but this time around, we’re leaning under on his receiving line, which is at 47.5 yards. 

The Packers allow 49.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends, but that average has some inflation after the Los Angeles Chargers game last week, in which they allowed one catch for 51 yards to Stone Smartt. 

Donald Parham also had four catches for 57 yards, but his quarterback is Justin Herbert. 

Goff had a game-low in passing yards against the Packers in Week 4. 

LaPorta did manage to go over this number then, but over his last five games, he’s failed to top this number three times. When he’s seen five targets or less, he’s only managed 48 receiving yards or more in just one game, though, to be fair, one of the games was 47 yards. 

Given LaPorta’s receiving yardage track record and the Packers average against tight ends, this number is just a bit too high to feel confident in. 

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Pick: Riley Patterson Over 2.5 PATs Made (-135) at DraftKings

Next, we’re looking at Lions kicker Riley Patterson and his PATs. Of course, we’re betting on the Lions to score at least three touchdowns, which is more than possible. 

This season, the Lions average 3.3 touchdowns per game, tied for third-most in the NFL. Against the Packers in Week 4, Patterson made two field goals and four extra points. The Lions won that game 34-20 outside at Lambeau Field. This time, they’re in a dome in Detroit. 

Take the over here. As an alternate, we also like Patterson over 7.5 Kicking Points at -110. 

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

Pick: Sam Howell 250+ Passing Yards (-185) at DraftKings

At -185, the value isn’t superb here, but his current line of 265.5 is a bit steep. 

This season, the Cowboys allowed 177.6 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and 28.1 attempts. 

However, they’re hosting the Commanders and Howell as 11-point home favorites. 

So, if the Commanders are trailing, you can expect Howell to start throwing plenty. 

This season, Howell leads the NFL in dropbacks, attempts, completions, and yards and is tied for fourth in passing touchdowns. 

His leads aren’t particularly close, either. For example, he leads in attempts by 60, which is about two games or so for most players. 

He only averages 6.9 yards per attempt, but with 442 attempts, he’s averaging 40 attempts. So, if he just follows his averages of 40 attempts and 6.9 per attempt, he’s already on pace for 276 yards. 

He’s almost immune to opponent season averages because he throws more than anyone else. 

Head to DraftKings to bet on our picks

Pick: Logan Thomas Any Time TD (+290) at Caesars 

We just discussed how much Howell throws, and while he may not have an overwhelming number of passing touchdowns, he’s typically good for at least one per game. If he manages to throw one here, tight end Logan Thomas is a solid candidate to be on the receiving end.

This season, the Cowboys allowed four catches for 44 yards and 0.60 touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed one in back-to-back games against the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers—two other games where they were double-digit favorites. 

Thomas is second on the team in receptions, third in targets (one behind Jahan Dotson), and tied for second in touchdowns. 

He also plays the third-most receiving snaps for the Commanders. 

At +290, this is great value for a player who should be able to score. 

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Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions (-125) at DraftKings

Other than the 49ers’ bad stretch of three games, quarterback Brock Purdy has been clean in the interception department. He had five in that three-game stretch. In every other game, he has zero interceptions. 

Going up against the Seahawks, Purdy will face a defense that averages less than one per game. They’ve had just one over their past three games, and this season, there have been five games without them generating one. 

Purdy is typically a clean passer. Last season, on 233 attempts, he had just four interceptions. 

Expect Purdy to remain clear here against a defense far from being known as one to force these turnovers. 

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Pick: Christian McCaffrey 2+ TDs (+200) at Caesars 

With odds of +200 to score multiple touchdowns, that just speaks to how touchdown-savvy McCaffrey is. Against the Jacksonville Jaguars, his multi-season touchdown streak ended, but against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he bounced back with 78 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards, and a touchdown. 

Here, he’ll face a Seahawks defense that allows one touchdown per game on the ground to running backs and over 82 yards. In the passing game, they allow 44 yards receiving and just 0.20 touchdowns, but as we know, McCaffrey is a different kind of running back. 

He’ll get plenty of opportunities in the receiving game, and he’s facing a defense that allows one rushing touchdown per game. 

At +200, this is as good a time as any to get “+” odds on a McCaffrey wager despite the tall order he needs to meet. 

Using promo code WSN1000 you’ll receive up to $1,000 back as a bonus bet if your first wager loses.

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Richard Janvrin

Sports Betting Analyst & Content Specialist

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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of English/ Journalism
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
9 years
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