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UFC 291 Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Odds: A Rematch of Their 2018 Bout

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Published July 27, 2023
11 min read
  • The vacant “BMF” title is on the line in lightweight main event
  • Alex Pereira makes light heavyweight debut against former champion
  • Tony Ferguson looks to snap his 5-fight losing streak

UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2

The odds for this match are provided by the DraftKings sportsbook. See other UFC betting sites before placing your bet.

Fighter

Odds

Dustin Poirier

-150

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Justin Gaethje

+130

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Fighter

Odds

Jan Blachowicz

-125

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Alex Pereira

+105

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Fighter

Odds

Stephen Thompson

-150

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Michel Pereira

+130

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Fighter

Odds

Tony Ferguson

+310

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Bobby Green

-410

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Fighter

Odds

Michael Chiesa

+125

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Kevin Holland

-145

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UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2 - Picks & Predictions

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje - “BMF” championship (Lightweight division)

Dustin Poirier (-150)

Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira - Light heavyweight division

Jan Blachowicz (-125) 

Stephen Thompson vs Michel Pereira - Welterweight division

Michel Pereira (+130)

Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green - Lightweight division

Tony Ferguson (+310)

Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland - Welterweight division

Kevin Holland (-145)

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UFC 291 Poirier vs Gaethje 2 Predictions

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje - “BMF” Championship

Dustin Poirier

TALE OF THE TAPE

Justin Gaethje

34

Age

34

5 ft 9 in

Height

5 ft 11 in

72 in

Reach

69.5 in

29-7, 1 no-contest

Record

24-4

In what will be a rematch of their 2018 bout in which Dustin Poirier won via TKO, Poirier and Justin Gaethje will now meet again in a lightweight main event in what will be only the second fight ever contested for the “BMF” title formerly held by Jorge Masvidal. To learn more about weight classes, read our guide to women's & men's UFC weight classes.   

Since their first fight, Poirier has gone on to hold interim lightweight gold, defeat Conor McGregor twice, and lose two separate undisputed championship fights.

He enters this main event Saturday coming off of a third-round submission win over Michael Chandler that took place at UFC 281 last November.

Since losing to Poirier in 2018, Gaethje has also gone on to win interim gold and lose two separate challenges for an undisputed championship.

He is 2-2 in his last four and is coming off of a majority decision win over Rafael Fiziev that took place at UFC 286 this past March.

Gaethje will be the taller man but Poirier will have the edge in reach. Gaethje has NCAA division one wrestling credentials but Poirier boasts a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

And, having already defeated Gaethje once before, it’s no surprise that oddsmakers give Poirier the edge, listing him as the -150 favorite.

To find out how to place your bets for this lightweight “BMF” championship main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira - Light Heavyweight Division

Jan Blachowicz

TALE OF THE TAPE

Alex Pereira

40

Age

36

6 ft 2 in

Height

6 ft 4 in

78 in

Reach

79 in

29-9-1

Record

7-2

Scheduled prior to light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill vacating his title due to injury, it was rumored for a while that this bout could be turned into a five-round main event for the championship. But that ultimately never happened.

Still, it is likely that the winner of this fight will end up fighting Jiri Prochazka for the vacant title as Prochazka also vacated his championship due to injury and never lost it.

Jan Blachowicz is a former light heavyweight champion, having won the title vacated by Jon Jones in 2020. He lost the belt but once again found himself fighting for the vacant title - this time vacated by Prochazka. He took on Magomed Ankalaev and the two fought to a draw, leaving the title vacant until Jamahal Hill defeated Glover Teixeira. And now the light heavyweight championship is vacant once again. Did you follow all that?

Blachowicz has not fought since that draw with Ankalaev last December.

Alex Pereira, a former middleweight, won the title of that division from Israel Adesanya but subsequently lost it back to Adesanya in their rematch.

The freakishly large Pereira then made the decision to move up to the light heavyweight division in order to cut less weight and to feel less fatigued in the octagon.

Pereira will stand two-inches taller than Blachowicz and will have a one-inch reach advantage. Both fighters are known for their punching power but it is the more experienced Blachowicz that is listed as the -125 favorite

Stephen Thompson vs Michel Pereira - Welterweight Division

Stephen Thompson

TALE OF THE TAPE

Michel Pereira

40

Age

29

6 ft

Height

6 ft 1 in

75 in

Reach

73 in

17-6-1

Record

28-11, 2 no-contests

Our second Pereira on this main card, number-15 ranked welterweight Michel Pereira looks to extend his winning streak to six in a row. To do so, he’ll have to take out the number-seven ranked and former title challenger Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Check out current UFC Rankings for weight classes and pound-for-pound greatest fighter!  

Pereira’s most recent win came in the form of a split-decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio in a ‘fight of the night’ performance. However, that fight took place in May 2022 - meaning that Pereira hasn’t fought in over a year.

Thompson’s most recent fight also took place last year - a December TKO win over Kevin Holland that was also awarded fight of the night honors. Prior to that, Thompson had lost two in a row.

Notably younger and standing one-inch taller, Pereira is listed as the +130 underdog. Thompson will have a two-inch reach advantage in this bout.

Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green - Lightweight Division

Tony Ferguson

TALE OF THE TAPE

Bobby Green

39

Age

36

6 ft

Height

5 ft 10 in

76.5 in

Reach

71 in

26-8

Record

29-14-1, 1 no-contest

After enjoying a 12-fight winning streak that saw him capture interim lightweight gold, Tony Ferguson now finds himself on a five-fight skid and out of the lightweight rankings.

Ferguson’s most recent loss came at the hands of Nate Diaz at UFC 279. Ferguson took on Diaz in the main event in what was a last-minute opponent change. Ferguson was submitted in the fourth round.

His opponent, Bobby Green, is on a losing skid of his own - having lost two of his last three fights and having his most recent fight against Jared Gordon deemed a no-contest after an accidental clash of heads that led to Gordon getting knocked out.

In what will likely be a stand-up battle, Bobby Green is the main card’s biggest betting favorite at -410 despite Ferguson’s height and reach advantages.

Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland - Welterweight Division

Michael Chiesa

TALE OF THE TAPE

Kevin Holland

35

Age

30

6 ft 1 in

Height

6 ft 3 in

75.5 in

Reach

81 in

18-6

Record

24-9, 1 no-contest

Currently 4-2 since moving to the welterweight division in 2018, Michael Chiesa has lost his last two fights - both of which occurred in 2021. He has not fought since his unanimous decision loss to Sean Brady, which took place on November 20, 2021.

His opponent, Kevin Holland (who will be fighting in his third fight since “retiring”), recently snapped a two-fight skid of his own when he scored a third-round knockout over Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC 287 in April.

As one of the tallest men in the welterweight division, Kevin Holland will stand two-inches taller than Chiesa and will look to take advantage of his 5.5-inch reach advantage.

Holland is listed as the favorite at -145.

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How to Watch UFC 291: Poirier vs Gaethje 2

  • LOCATION: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
  • WHEN: Saturday, July 29
  • TIME: 10 PM EST
  • HOW: PPV, UFC Fight Pass, ESPN+
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AUTHOR

Ryan Bristlon

429 Articles

Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of the sport of hockey and the NHL.



Email: [email protected]

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