World Cup 2026: USA vs. Paraguay Predictions

USA vs. Paraguay Overview and Latest Odds

According to the latest World Cup odds, the USA is the favorite to triumph in its first World Cup game on American turf since 1994, but Paraguay is a team that does not mind being the underdog.

• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, USA

• Date & Time: Friday 12th June, 9:00 PM ET

• US Broadcast: FOX Sports

For readers in U.S. states where conventional sports betting is still unavailable, regulated prediction market platforms offer a legal alternative. These apps enable users to trade on event outcomes while benefiting from highly accurate, market-driven forecasts.

Expert Betting Predictions and Best Bets for USA vs. Paraguay

Below are our three top tips for USA vs. Paraguay, including two straight bets and one same game parlay.

• USA to win

The USA has been inconsistent during Mauricio Pochettino’s tenure, but this is the moment they have been building towards for years. With the home crowd behind them in Inglewood, the USA have a major advantage. Their offense will pry open the Paraguay backline at some stage, while their opponents are a limited attacking force. The USA will not be at their fluent best in their first game of the competition, but they have enough to triumph.

• Draw at half-time

It is never easy to face a World Cup host in their first game of the tournament, so this is a tough assignment for Paraguay. They are a cautious team anyway, but the wider circumstances of the match will push them further in that direction. Gustavo Alfaro will focus on keeping things tight at the back in the first half in particular, so it is vital that the USA remain composed and stick to their game plan. Expect a stalemated opening 45 minutes.

• USA to win and under 2.5 goals

In their last six games, Paraguay have conceded zero goals or one goal on five occasions. Meanwhile, their 18 qualifiers produced a total of just 24 goals. Alfaro’s team are not easy to break down. They do not score a great deal of goals, but that only makes them more determined to lock things down defensively. We expect the USA to find a way through at some point, but this will not be a high-scoring fixture.

USA Betting Preview

The USA’s record under Mauricio Pochettino is mixed, but the trend has been broadly positive over the last 12 months or so. Five of their last nine matches have ended in victory, and although defeats by Belgium, Portugal, and Germany demonstrate that the USMNT still struggles against top-tier opposition, they have been more reliable against teams of a similar standard to themselves. 

Paraguay fit into that category, so the USA will be reasonably confident going into this game. They will be without Crystal Palace defender Chris Richards, who picked up an ankle injury towards the end of the club season, but Pochettino otherwise has a fully fit roster of players to choose from.

Richards is the USA’s best center-back, so his absence is a blow. But as long as the whole team remains compact without the ball, the USA have enough in defense to limit Paraguay, while the co-hosts have the attacking quality to collect all three points. Taking care of business in these early stages will be crucial if they hope to shift the current USMNT to Win World Cup odds in their favor. 

Indeed, a frontline of Timothy Weah, Folarin Balogun, and Christian Pulisic (one of the will create enough opportunities for the USA to win outright, with Weston McKennie the key man in terms of connecting the midfield and the offense.

Paraguay Betting Preview

Paraguay qualified for World Cup 2026 by finishing sixth in South America’s 10-team table. They won seven of their 18 qualifiers, as well as drawing seven and losing four. Paraguay conceded 10 goals, with Ecuador the only team possessing a better defensive record. But Gustavo Alfaro’s crew scored only 14 times, which shows how reliant they are on their backline.

That lack of attacking threat has since been exacerbated by an injury suffered by Julio Enciso, the creative heartbeat of this Paraguay team. The attacking midfielder was stretchered off in a 4-0 victory over Nicaragua, leaving Paraguay without arguably their most important player against the USA. 

The creative burden will now fall largely on the shoulders of Diego Gomez of Brighton & Hove Albion, although the Brazil-born Mauricio is one to watch after he switched his international allegiance to Paraguay ahead of the World Cup.

Without Encisco, Paraguay will double down on their game plan of defending with diligence and discipline, and looking to deny the USA space in the final third. The worry is, an already anemic attack has now lost its principal spark.

How USA and Paraguay Match Up Against Each Other

These two teams played each other as recently as November, when the USA won 2-1 in a friendly thanks to goals from Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun.

It would be a mistake to read too much into the result of a non-competitive game, but a repeat performance on Friday would put the USMNT in a strong position to collect all three points on matchday one. The Stars and Stripes also beat Paraguay in 2016 and 2018, and they lead the overall head-to-head record with five wins to two (there have been two draws).

Paraguay enjoys defending, so they will be happy to soak up pressure. The South Americans will deny the USA space to run into, knowing that Mauricio Pochettino’s offensive players are at their most dangerous in transition. Paraguay’s defensive line will mostly be positioned in their own half, leaving the USA to look for gaps in their off-the-ball structure.

The main question over the USA is whether they will handle their opening-match nerves. Even if the co-hosts start slowly for that reason, they will gradually grow into the game once they have found their groove. The support of the home crowd works in the USA’s favor too. A winning start beckons for Pochettino’s men.