Austria vs. Turkey Prediction: Potential Dark Horses Clash in Last 16

Written by: Greg Lea
Published July 1, 2024
6 min read
  • Austria qualified for the round of 16 at Euro 2024 after finishing top of Group D

  • Turkey advanced to the knockout phase as the runners-up in Group F

  • Both teams have been tipped as potential dark horses to triumph this summer

Austria vs. Turkey Odds

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Match Result Odds
Austria -105
Draw +230
Turkey +330
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Austria vs. Turkey Pick

Back Austria to beat Turkey in this last-16 game. In our view, Ralf Rangnick’s side will book their spot in the quarter-finals on Tuesday.

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Austria vs Turkey Euro 2024 Prediction

Austria One of the Teams of the Group Stage at Euro 2024

Austria have emerged as Euro 2024 dark horses. They were cast in that role before the edition of this competition held eight years ago, only to crash and burn in the group stage. This time around they performed creditably across their first three matches, amassing six points to finish top of Group D.

That was no mean feat given the other teams in their section. Austria narrowly lost 1-0 to France on matchday one, before a thrilling display helped them to a 3-1 victory over Poland. In their final group game, Ralf Rangnick’s team ran out 3-2 winners against the Netherlands to secure first place and set up this last-16 tie with Turkey.

Austria have been one of the most enjoyable teams to watch at this tournament so far. It is often said that national teams do not really resemble club sides these days because the latter are so much more cohesive due to the increased training time they have together. Austria are an exception: they have the sort of clear identity that is usually associated with clubs.

Their style of play was installed by their current manager Ralf Rangnick, the godfather of gegenpressing. Austria press high up the pitch with energy and intensity. When they have the ball, they try to play vertically whenever possible. It is a brand of soccer that has been hugely influential in the European game over the last 15 or 20 years.

The Austrian public has fallen in love with Rangnick’s approach, which stands in stark contrast to the conservative methods employed by his predecessor Franco Foda. Even without their best player David Alaba, who is missing Euro 2024 through injury, Austria have shone.

These two teams have ended up on the kinder side of the bracket, away from Portugal, Germany, Spain, and France. A win here would leave Austrian supporters dreaming of an unlikely run to the final.

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Vincenzo Montella Has Made Turkey a Fun Team to Watch

The above can also be said for Turkey, whose fans have made themselves heard throughout this competition. Germany has long had a large Turkish diaspora and it sometimes feels as if Vincent Montella’s men are actually the home team this summer.

Like Austria, Turkey have also been fun to watch up to now. Their style is very different to that of their upcoming opponents, though. Throughout his managerial career, Montella has embraced technical players. During his first spell at Fiorentina, it seemed as if the Italian was on a mission to squeeze as many creators as possible into the same starting XI.

He has once again made offensive soccer the overriding goal with Turkey. His team were involved in perhaps the most entertaining match of Euro 2024 to date, beating Georgia 3-1 in their opening encounter. A 3-0 defeat by Portugal followed before Turkey sealed second spot in Group F by beating Czech Republic 2-1 last time out.

The Crescent Stars appear to have adopted the attitude that attack is the best form of defense. That is risky at times. Portugal were frustrated by the low blocks used by the Czechs and the Georgians, but they had a field day up against Turkey’s more open approach. 

Yet their style brings rewards too. Turkey were dismal at the European Championship three years ago, losing all three matches despite being held up as potential outsiders by pundits and the best online sportsbooks. Back then, Turkey looked full of fear. Now they are free of it - and their approach has put them within touching distance of the last eight.

Austrian Energy Could Win the Day in Last-16 Tie in Leipzig

Knockout ties at major tournaments are often cagey and tight affairs, but we should be in store for an entertaining 90 (or perhaps 120) minutes of soccer at the Red Bull Arena on Tuesday. Austria are the favorites and we too favor Rangnick’s team to advance to the quarters, where they would play either the Netherlands or Romania.

When Turkey push forward, they tend to leave gaps behind. They are not as coordinated in the press as Austria are, so opponents find them easier to play through. It is worth noting that only three teams in the group stage gave up more opportunities based on expected goals, a measure of chance quality. 

The main question mark over Austria is whether they will burn out at some point. Their high-energy game plan is taxing on the mind as well as the body. This is even more of a factor when we are talking about an international tournament at the end of a draining club season.

But there were no signs of Austria wilting against the Netherlands last time out. In fact, they seem to be getting stronger as the event wears on. Tip Rangnick’s team to beat Turkey on Tuesday.

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How to Watch Austria vs. Turkey

  • Teams: Austria vs Turkey

  • Location: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany

  • Date and Time: Tuesday, 2 July 2024, 15:00 PM ET 

  • How to Watch: FOX


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Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts in Politics
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