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Bayern Munich vs PSG: Tie in Balance After Tight First Leg

Written by: Greg Lea
Updated March 7, 2023
12 min read
  • Bayern Munich hold a 1-0 aggregate advantage after a victory in Paris last month

  • PSG are up against it as they seek to reach the Champions League quarter-finals

  • Bayern Munich are now in pole position to advance to the last eight of the tournament

Bayern Munich vs PSG Odds

The odds for Bayern Munich vs PSG have been supplied by the DraftKings sportsbook, which is offering a deposit bonus up to $1000.

Match Result and Total Goals

Odds

Bayern Munich and Over 2.5

+130

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Bayern Munich and Under 2.5

+550

BET HERE

PSG and Over 2.5

+390

BET HERE

PSG and Under 2.5

+1000

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Bayern Munich vs PSG Pick

The German champions should get the job done in front of their own fans, but this is unlikely to be another low-scoring affair.

Back Bayern Munich to beat PSG and over 2.5 goals. (+130)

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Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction

Bayern Munich vs PSG Predictions

Bayern Munich Aim to Complete Job After First-Leg Win in Paris

For the first hour of this Champions League last-16 tie, Bayern Munich were in a commanding position. They were utterly dominated in the opening 60 minutes of the first leg, dominating possession, controlling the tempo of the game, and then taking the lead through Kingsley Coman, a former Paris Saint-Germain player.

But Bayern were unable to hold the home team at arm’s length for the entirety of the contest at the Parc des Princes. Inspired by the introduction from the bench of Kylian Mbappe, who was not fit enough to feature from the first whistle, PSG came on strong in the final half an hour.

In the end, they were not quite able to find an equalizer, with Mbappe’s goal disallowed by the video assistant referee for an offside in the build-up. And the fact that Bayern held on for a victory means they are now in pole position to make it through to the quarter-finals.

After a lengthy winter break following World Cup 2022, Bayern hit the ground trudging. Three consecutive draws blew the Bundesliga title race wide open, allowing Borussia Dortmund to move level on points with the defending champions.

But while Bayern are not quite back to their very best, they have certainly improved since the end of January. Six of their seven encounters since then - including a game in the DFB-Pokal and that clash with PSG - have ended with Julian Nagelsmann’s side celebrating victory.

The best online sportsbooks have Bayern down as the second-favorites to win the Champions League this season. At their best, few teams in Europe are better. 

And while Bayern have admittedly gone through phases of inconsistency in 2022/23, so has virtually every other contender for the crown except Serie A leaders Napoli.

PSG Might Relish Unusual Underdog Status in This Last-16 Tie

It is not often that PSG get to experience the feeling of being underdogs. In fact, Wednesday’s match in Munich will be the first time it has happened this season. 

By far the strongest side in Ligue 1, Christophe Galtier’s team are expected to win every fixture they contest in French domestic soccer, and they were the favorites in all six of their Champions League group games too.

That is not the case this week, either in the standalone fixture or the tie as a whole. Those two things are in fact related: to stand a chance of making it through to the quarter-finals, PSG must beat Bayern Munich on their own patch. Even a win by a one-goal margin would only be enough to force extra time.

Because of their dominance back home, both of these sides are primarily judged by their performance in continental competition. PSG have continually fallen short in that arena in recent years. 

The closest they came to being crowned champions of Europe was in 2020 when they were beaten by Bayern in the final. Generally, though, PSG have disappointed in the Champions League - and elimination in the round of 16 this season would continue that trend.

It would also leave Galtier under pressure. He would not be sacked immediately, of course, but given that the Ligue 1 title is seen as a given at the Parc des Princes these days, a failure to even reach the last eight of this tournament would be a major blow to his standing.

Bayern Munich Can Get the Job Done to Reach Quarter-Finals

Bayern Munich will approach this game as if the aggregate score is still 0-0. Doing anything different would be a risk. Actively playing for a draw leaves very little margin for error and often emboldens opponents that are going all-out for victory.

Bayern will draw confidence from their phenomenal record at the Allianz Arena. Of their last 17 home games in the Champions League, they have come out on top 15 times. Few visiting sides enjoy success in Munich, although PSG did manage to beat Bayern on this ground in 2021.

A repeat is possible, particularly given the attacking talent PSG have at their disposal, but not likely. Indeed, while Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi should cause Bayern a few problems at one end of the pitch, the hosts have an abundance of quality in forward areas themselves.

There is reason to believe this will be a high-scoring game. After all, Bayern are averaging over three goals per match this season. 

We, therefore, recommend pairing over 2.5 goals with a Bayern win. Nagelsmann’s men have found form again and they should prove too hot for PSG to handle on Wednesday.

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How to Watch Bayern Munich vs PSG

  • Teams: Bayern Munich vs PSG

  • Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

  • Date and Time: Mar. 8, 2023, 3 p.m. EST 

  • How to Watch: Peacock Premium

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AUTHOR

Greg Lea

787 Articles

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]

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