Netherlands vs. Turkey Prediction: Semi-Final Spot up for Grabs

Written by: Greg Lea
Published July 5, 2024
6 min read
  • The Netherlands were much improved in their 3-0 defeat of Romania last time out

  • Turkey advanced to the quarter-finals thanks to a 2-1 win against Austria

  • The winner of this game will take on either England or Switzerland in the semis

Netherlands vs. Turkey Odds

The odds for Netherlands vs Turkey are from the FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $150 in bonus bets after betting $5.

Match Result and Over 2.5 GoalsOdds
Netherlands and Yes+130
Netherlands and No+300
Turkey and Yes+800
Turkey and No+1100
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Netherlands vs. Turkey Pick

Back the Netherlands to win and over 2.5 goals. This could be an open encounter and we fancy the Dutch to edge it.

Bet on Netherlands to Win and Over 2.5 Goals at FanDuel 

Netherlands vs Turkey Euro 2024 Prediction

Netherlands Finally Click and Optimism Floods Back In

It is fair to say the Netherlands took a while to get going at Euro 2024. Ronald Koeman’s men were mediocre in the group stage. They needed a late winner to overcome Poland 2-1 in their first outing in Germany, before a goalless draw with France and a 3-2 defeat by Austria. A tally of four points was only enough for third place in Group D.

Ironically, finishing third rather than second may have actually aided the Dutch’s efforts to reach the latter stages of the competition. Because of their position in their group, Koeman’s team faced Romania in the round of 16 - and it was in that match that everything clicked.

The Netherlands were excellent last time out. They ran out 3-0 winners in the end but the margin of victory could easily have been wider. Undoubtedly, that was in part down to Romania’s shortcomings. For all their effort, they were one of the weakest teams to advance to the knockout rounds.

Still, the Netherlands were excellent for the first time this summer. They were slick in attack and solid at the back, creating numerous chances at one end and conceding few at the other. 

At the same time, the draw looks like it has really opened up for the Dutch. A clash with Turkey in the quarter-finals is eminently winnable. If they do come out on top, Koeman’s team would face Switzerland or an unconvincing England outfit in the last four.

Looking too far ahead is always dangerous, though, and the Netherlands must ensure they are fully focused on the task at hand. Just like in the round of 16, the Dutch are favourites to win this game and that brings its own pressure. Nothing can be taken for granted at this European Championship.

Bet on Netherlands vs Turkey at FanDuel 

Turkey Aiming to Replicate Semi-Final Run at Euro 2008

Turkey have been one of the biggest underachievers in the international game over the last 15 years or so. A country with a deep passion for soccer and a relatively large population failed to qualify for the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 World Cups. They did reach Euro 2016 and Euro 2020, but the Crescent Stars crashed out in the group phase of both events.

This time around, though, Turkey have turned up. A victory on Saturday evening would see them replicate their achievement from Euro 2008 when Turkey reached the semi-finals of the tournament. 

Vincenzo Montella’s men finished second in their group. They kicked off their campaign with a 3-1 victory over Georgia, before a disappointing 3-0 loss to Portugal. However, Turkey put that result behind them quickly, beating Czech Republic 2-1 on matchday three to advance to the round of 16.

Turkey were underdogs against Austria, but they got off to the perfect start when Merih Demiral nodded home from a corner with less than 60 seconds on the clock. The centre-back scored again in the second half before Michael Gregoritsch pulled one back to set up a nervy finish. 

In truth, Turkey rode their luck against Austria. They went too deep, too early - and it could easily have cost them. But Montella’s team ultimately got the job done and they deserve credit for some of their defending, especially in the second half. In particular, Demiral and the goalkeeper Mert Gunok were outstanding.

Goals Could Be on the Cards in the Last Quarter-Final

For better or worse, Turkey have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch at Euro 2024. They have played front-footed, attacking soccer under Montella, who has embraced technical players throughout his managerial career. The downside is that Turkey have been too open defensively.

Take their last outing against Austria. Turkey gave up 3.08 expected goals, a measure of chance quality that suggests, with average finishing, their opponents should have scored three times. The Crescent Stars are yet to keep a clean sheet in Germany.

That should work to the Netherlands’ advantage. We saw their transition threat they carry against a Romania team that gave them too much space, and the likes of Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay should cause similar problems against a Turkey team whose out-of-possession shape is not the most watertight.

Pleasingly for neutrals, goals should be on the cards. Before the Romania game, the Netherlands did not look overly convincing at the back, particularly in that 3-2 loss to Austria. Turkey will back themselves to cause the Dutch a few problems going forward. Over 2.5 goals thus looks like a solid selection.

We recommend combining that with a Netherlands victory. Koeman’s team are not perfect and they are yet to show that they are in the same class as Germany, Spain, and France. But they should prove too strong for a Turkey side that may struggle to find the right balance at the Olympiastadion.

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How to Watch Netherlands vs. Turkey

  • Teams: Netherlands vs Turkey

  • Location: Olympiastadion, Berlin, Germany

  • Date and Time: Saturday, July 6, 3:00 PM ET 

  • How to Watch: FOX


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Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts in Politics
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