Spain vs. Germany Prediction: Strongest Sides at Tournament Meet

Written by: Greg Lea
Published July 4, 2024
6 min read
  • Spain have won four out of four at Euro 2024, including a 4-1 triumph over Georgia

  • Germany beat Denmark 2-0 in the round of 16 to advance to the quarter-finals

  • These two teams have been the two best performers at the competition to date

Spain vs. Germany Odds

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Match Result Odds
Spain +160
Draw +220
Germany +175
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Spain vs Germany Pick

Back Spain to beat Germany on Friday. La Roja have been the most impressive team at Euro 2024 so far and they can march on here.

Bet on Spain (+160) at BetMGM 

Spain vs Germany Euro 2024 Prediction

Spain Seek Statement Win After Tweaking Playing Style

The knockout stage bracket at Euro 2024 is lopsided, with many of the strongest sides on the continent all on the same side of the draw. That is in large part because France failed to win their group as expected, thus landing them in the half that already contained Portugal, Spain and Germany.

Yet there was always a high chance that these two teams would meet in the quarter-finals this summer. Both sides won their groups and came through the round of 16 unscathed, setting up this titanic tussle in Stuttgart.

Spain are the only team at this competition with a 100 percent winning record. They advanced from the so-called group of death with relative ease, beating Croatia 3-0, Italy 1-0, and Albania 1-0. They finally conceded their first goal of the tournament to Georgia last time out, yet they still came roaring back to win 4-1 after falling behind to the debutants. 

Luis de la Fuente, a man who was barely known outside his own country before succeeding Luis Enrique, has done a fine job of instigating an evolution. Since 2008 Spain have been known for a tiki-taka style of play based on ball possession at all costs. That style brought them two European Championships and a World Cup, so they were understandably reluctant to move away from it.

De la Fuente still embraces many of the principles that underpinned that extraordinary period of success between 2008 and 2012, but he has added something different to the mix. Most notably, Spain now have two fast, direct and tricky wingers on the flanks in Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal. 

This adds a new dimension to their game. Spain can now play in transition, breaking forward at speed when the ball changes hands. In their opening match of the Euros against Croatia, they had less possession than their opponents in a competitive game for the first time since the final of this competition in 2008.

Bet on Spain vs Germany at BetMGM 

Germany Hope Home Advantage Helps Them Edge out Spain

Spain rank top for both results and performances at Euro 2024 so far, but Germany are firmly in second spot. The only blot on their copybook was a 1-1 draw with Switzerland on matchday three of the group stage, but the Nationalelf defeated Denmark 2-0 in the round of 16 to set up this clash.

The Danes felt a little hard done by at the end of that match after a couple of marginal refereeing decisions went against them. First, Joachim Andersen had a ‘goal’ chalked off for a very tight offside, before the Crystal Palace defender was punished for a questionable handball inside his own area.

Nevertheless, Germany were worthy winners. Julian Nagelsmann, like his opposite number De la Fuente, deserves credit for the work he has done up to now. Praise will be tempered if the Germans crash out of a home European Championship in the last eight, but the team is in a much better place now than it was nine months ago.

Nagelsmann’s 4-2-3-1 system gets the best out of some key players. The midfield combination of Toni Kroos and Robert Andrich works well, with the former building Germany’s play and the latter breaking up the opposition’s. Ilkay Gundogan and, in particular, Jamal Musiala have thrived between the lines, as did Florian Wirtz before he was surprisingly left out against Denmark.

In Kai Havertz and Niclas Fullkrug, Nagelsmann has two very different options at centre-forward. Much of the public seems to prefer Fullkrug, but Havertz’s clever movement brings the best out of the players around him.

One of These Two Excellent Sides Will Be out on Friday

Perhaps the two best tempo-setting midfielders in world soccer will share a pitch on Friday: Rodri for Spain and Kroos for Germany. 

When you see how well he continues to play at the highest level, it is astonishing that this could be Kroos’ last game as a professional. The ex-Real Madrid man has already confirmed that he will retire after Euro 2024.

It will be fascinating to see which team gets control of the ball in central areas, but perhaps the match will ultimately be decided out wide. Germany are a narrow side and they could be vulnerable to fast breaks from Williams and the precociously gifted 16-year-old Yamal.

This is where Spain have the edge. Antonio Rudiger is an excellent one-versus-one defender, but even he could struggle if continually forced to plug gaps in behind and out wide. The expected goals data shows that De la Fuente’s team have created more chances than any other side at this competition. That bodes well for Saturday.

The best online sportsbooks have Spain down as favorites and we agree that they are the most likely winners of what could be a European Championship classic. Check some of our recommended sportsbooks below, and place your bets 👇

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How to Watch Spain vs. Germany

  • Teams: Spain vs Germany

  • Location: MHPArena, Stuttgart, Germany

  • Date and Time: Friday, July 5, 12.00 PM ET 

  • How to Watch: FS1


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Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts in Politics
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