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Best MLB Bets Today: Locked into the NL Central

Written by: Michael Savio
Published April 30, 2024
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today 04 30 2024

Both of our bets today involve teams battling for the lead in the NL Central. The first comes from a came between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets. The second involves a matchup between AL East contenders Tampa Bay Rays heading north to take on the Milwaukee Brewers.

Below, we’ll break down everything you need to know about both of our favorite bets. All odds will be taken from Caesars Sportsbook

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Best MLB Bets Today: Cubs vs. Mets (8:10 PM EST)

Cubs ML (+115 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Even after being ravaged by injuries, the Cubs are still one of the top teams in the league. They dropped two out of three to Boston over the weekend but won five of the six before then. Things haven’t gone as well for New York. The Mets posted a six-game winning streak that seemed to turn their seasons around, but now they’ve lost five of their previous seven coming into the series. 

While both of tonight’s starting pitchers have solid numbers, we trust Javier Assad (2-0, 2.00 ERA). The 26-year-old was great for the Cubs last season, and he has been even better as a full-time member of the rotation in 2024. 

Assad has not allowed more than two runs over five starts this season. While he isn’t going deep into games, that is more due to the Cubs' game plan. His 1.00 WHIP shows he is keeping runners off the bases, suggesting his impressive numbers could continue. The Mets roster has a combined 15 at-bats against Assad, managing just one hit.

The Mets will turn to veteran Sean Manea (1-1, 3.33 ERA) to start against the Cubs. The lefty has seen his career decline over the last two seasons. While his ERA is solid through his first five starts, he is trending in the wrong direction. Over his previous three starts, Manea has a 5.45 ERA and a horrendous 2.05 WHIP. Those numbers can largely be attributed to his walk totals, posting ten over his last three starts alone. He has been bailed out to avoid many of those from turning into runs, but that won’t be so easy against a good Cubs lineup.

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Best MLB Bets Today: Rays vs. Brewers (7:40 PM EST)

Brewers ML (-130  at Caesars Sportsbook)

We knew the Rays would be worse without Wander Franco, but they don’t even look like a playoff team early in 2024. They lost six of their previous seven games heading into their series with the Brewers, including an embarrassing three-game sweep at the hands of the White Sox. Chicago is the worst team in baseball, so being swept is a very bad sign for where this team is at. 

The Brewers are coming off a series loss to the Yankees. They have been hit hard by injuries, especially to their starting rotation. That’s a problem for the season, but it won’t be today with ace Preddy Peralta (2-0, 3.18 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) on the mound. He is coming off his worst start of the season, but it came against a Pirates team that has had his number over the years. Peralta has been elite in his other four starts, and we see him delivering another gem against a quiet Tampa offense.

Tampa’s offense struggles are due to slow starts from Yandi Diaz (.232 BA, 1 HR, 11 RBI) and Randy Arozarena (.152 BA, 3 HR, 19 RBI). The duo was expected to be the heart of the offense with Franco gone, but they buckled under the pressure early on.

The Brewers' offense should have no problem doing enough damage against Rays’ starter Tyler Alexander (1-0, 4.74 ERA), leading to a low-scoring win behind a great effort from Peralta.

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Michael Savio

485 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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