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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 20

Written by: Michael Savio
Published July 20, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Bets Today July 20 23

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!   

My Pick: Under 9 (-115)

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This is our favorite bet of the day, as these two starting pitchers have found their groove late into the season. While both offenses have improved, Milwaukee has cooled down since the All-Star break. Taijuan Walker can be beaten, but we don’t think the Brewers will be able to do enough to hit the over today. On the other side, the red-hot Phillies offense will run into a wall against one of the top pitchers in baseball, Corbin Burnes. The under may be the easiest money you will make all season.

Speaking of Corbin Burnes (8-5, 3.73 ERA), the former Cy Young winner finally returned to form in July. After his ERA reached 4.10 at the end of June, the righty has been near unhittable in July. Burnes has started three games this month, allowing four runs on just six hits. While walks have been a bit of an issue, his low hit totals have prevented it from costing him. The Brewers’ ace has been at his best when outside of Milwaukee this season, as evidenced by his 3.39 road ERA. We expect him to stay hot against the Phillies today, leading to a low-scoring thriller. 

Burnes will be up against veteran Taijuan Walker (11-3, 4.00 ERA). While he has had his struggles this season, it has been primarily limited to road games. Walker has been sharp when starting at home, posting a 3-0 record and 2.30 ERA over eight games. We see his impressive home record improving today as he faces a Brewers team that has recently entered an offensive slump. Since the break, the Crew have not scored more than five runs, leading to a lot of under bets hitting. Look for Walker to go deep into this game as he attempts to outduel Burnes, leading to an easy cover for this bet.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves

Odds Courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

My Pick: Braves +1.5 (+110)

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Our second bet of the day comes from one of Wednesday’s best matchups. The Braves and Diamondbacks are two of the NL’s top teams, and they’ll have their aces on the mound tonight. While both have been great this season, the Braves will have the advantage tonight. Not only do they have a better team, but D-Backs ace Zac Gallen has some troubling stats on the road. Atlanta has been at their best at home this season, and we see them jumping on Gallen to cruise to an easy win in their series finale.

Zac Gallen (11-4, 3.14 ERA) has been fantastic again this season, but most of his success has come at home, where he owns a 1.48 ERA in ten starts. It has been a different story on the road, where Gallen has a 5.11 ERA across ten starts. That whopping road ERA isn’t the result of a couple of bad outings but instead is a pattern that has gone on all season. The 27-year-old has just two quality starts on the road this season, coming against the Brewers and Marlins. Opponents have a .265 batting average in road games against the ace, which signals a big afternoon for the elite Braves offense.

The young Spencer Strider (11-3, 3.66 ERA) will be starting for Atlanta tonight. The 24-year-old is having another excellent campaign and is sure to be in contention for the 2023 NL Cy Young Award. While his road ERA isn’t great, it doesn’t tell the whole story. He has registered a quality start in five of his last eight home games, including impressive performances against the Dodgers and Twins. Strider did start against Arizona in June, allowing two runs on three hits over six innings. Look for him to cruise against Arizona today, adding another win to his impressive record.

Houston Astros vs Oakland A’s

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Astros -1.5 (-115)

While the odds aren’t great for a run-line bet, this is too good to pass up. We have a matchup between one of the best rookie pitchers and the worst offense in baseball. The A’s starter has been awful all season and will run into trouble against a Hoston offense that has adjusted to life without Yordan Alvarez. Look for them to put up a monster run total while the A’s get shut down on offense, leading to an easy cover.

J.P. France will be on the mound for Houston tonight. The 28-year-old rookie has been fantastic for the Astros in 2023, especially on the road. The righty has a 2.18 ERA across seven road starts. While he has been a bit shaky so far in July, his previous play suggests he will bounce back in a big way against the league’s worst team. Look for France to go deep into this one, leading to a lopsided win for Houston.

The A’s will send Hogan Harris (2-3, 6.51 ERA) out to the bump tonight, which is great news for Houston. The 26-year-old rookie has had a rough start to his MLB career. In his two starts this month, Harris has combined to allow 12 runs on 14 hits and seven walks. Those games were against average-at-best offenses in the Twins and Tigers, showing just how much the young lefty is struggling. Harris had a solid outing against Houston earlier this season, but that was when the Astros’ offense was struggling to score. Those days are over now, and it will lead to an ugly loss for the A’s at home tonight.

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

412 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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