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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 19

Written by: Michael Savio
Published October 19, 2023
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. See other MLB Sportsbook for more betting opportunities!

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My Pick: Phillies ML

We have seen the Phillies dominate the Diamondbacks in the first two games, and we see another lopsided win today. The Phillies offense has been on fire in the postseason, thanks mainly to Trea Turner finally breaking out. The shortstop was the MVP favorite after the World Baseball Classic, but he instead ended up having one of the worst seasons of his career. Those struggles are over, as Turner is batting .500 with three home runs and four stolen bases across eight postseason games. Add that to the red-hot bats of Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper, who have combined for nine home runs and 14 RBIs, and you have a recipe for an NL pennant.

We also like the Phillies due to the pitching matchup. Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) will be getting the start for Philadelphia. He has made two starts during their playoff run, allowing four hits and one run across 8 ⅔ innings. It’s hardly surprising, given his 1.23 ERA last season during Philadelphia’s run to the World Series. Suarez pitched against the Diamondbacks in Arizona in June and threw seven scoreless innings. We expect him to deliver a similar performance tonight, though the Phillies may not let him go as long.

Arizona will have Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72 ERA) on the mound this evening. He was near perfect in 4 ⅓ innings against the Dodgers in the NLDS, but he was hammered hard by Milwaukee in the wildcard round. That has been the story of the 25-year-old’s season, as he has failed to find consistency all year. Given the Dodgers play in the NLDS, we don’t credit Pfaadt too much, and we believe his appearance today will be closer to what we saw in Milwaukee. Given how the Phillies offense has played, we think the young pitcher gets rocked today.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Our Pick: Over 9.5 Runs

The Houston Astros were able to hold off the Rangers to get a vital win last night, setting them up for a chance to tie the series tonight. Both teams are short on starting pitching and have their offenses in high gear, leading to a large total from FanDuel for tonight’s game. We like the over due to the play of these offenses over the last two games. Last night’s performance was especially impressive considering the pitching matchup, with the teams combining to score 13 runs. Tonight’s pitching matchup will be much softer, and we see it leading to even more runs.

The Astros will turn to Jose Urquidy tonight. The 28-year-old missed the majority of the season with an injury but was able to return in September. It's been a mixed bag, but he looked sharp against the Twins in the ALDS. He allowed two runs on three hits across 5 ⅔ innings. However, the gap between the Rangers and Twins offenses is massive. He did not face the Rangers this season and was shelled by them in 2022. This is a better Texas lineup, and he will struggle to adjust to it on the road tonight.

Andrew Heaney will get the start for Texas in this key matchup. He finished the season strong but spent much of September coming out of the bullpen. Heaney caught the Orioles flat-footed in the ALDS, allowing one run across 3 ⅔ innings. Heaney had two starts against the Rangers since July 1, allowing six runs on nine hits over 9 ⅔ innings. That was during the regular season, but now he will be facing an Astros lineup that is both healthy and playing for their postseason lives. Their experience will come into play, helping them jump on Heaney early en route to a big run total.

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

485 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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