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Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props September 2-3

Written by: Michael Savio
Published September 2, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Player Props August 25 2023

With so many great matchups this weekend, we have a fantastic selection of player props to choose from. Below, we will share three of our favorites, giving you the insights and information needed to show why we think they’ll be winners. 

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds

My Pick: Javier Assad to Record the Win (+225 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

Our first prop bet is also our favorite of the weekend. Javier Assad (3-2, 2.96 ERA) has gone from a key reliever to a critical piece of Chicago’s rotation. He went 2-0 with a 2.47 ERA in August, and he threw 3 ⅔ scoreless innings against the Reds back in July. Assad has been at his best on the road this season, going 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA. Those are some stellar numbers and he should have no problem improving on them tonight. 

The Reds were leading the NL Central around the All-Star break, but they are 20-25 since then. Their struggles have all but extinguished their hopes for a division title, with the team now focusing on securing an NL Wild Card spot. Their recent play shows that this brutal run is not over quite yet. They have lost six of their last nine games, scoring two or fewer runs five times. Considering their struggles and Assaad’s impressive play, don’t expect to see them turn things around tonight. 

Assad’s chances to register a win tonight are boosted by Reds starter Andrew Abbott (8-4, 3.35 ERA). The 24-year-old has had a fantastic rookie season, but things fell apart in August. He had a 6.08 ERA over five starts last month, failing to post a single quality start. The young pitcher may not have much left in the tank as he adjusts to the long MLB season, which means another rough month is likely.

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

My Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+140 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Kyle Tucker has been a big part of the Astros' effort to fight their way to the top of the AL West. Houston has been hit hard with injuries, and they ended up playing large parts of the season without Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Michael Brantley. Those are three critical bats for this team, and it took a lot of the bite out of the perennially great offense. It would have been easy for Houston to plummet down the standings, but they were able to stay close to the Rangers thanks largely to Kyle Tucker (.291 BA, 26 HR, 98 RBI, 26 SB). 

While Tucker took some time to get going this season, a monster July boosted his season stats and helped the Astros stay afloat with their other stars out. Tucker’s batting average is down in August, but his other numbers remain strong. He had eight home runs last month, with his last coming August 27. With Luis Severino on the mound for the Yankees, Tucker will be set up nicely to add another long ball to his total tonight.

Luis Severino (4-8, 6.64 ERA) has had a 2023 campaign marred by injury and is struggling to regain his form from last season. While he has been much better over his previous two starts, Houston will be a much bigger test for him tonight. The Astros shelled Severino on August 4, allowing two home runs. We expect to see more of the same tonight.

Los Angeles Angels vs Oakland Athletics

My Pick: Paul Blackburn over 4.5 Strikeouts (-148 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Paul Blackburn (3-4, 3.93 ERA) has been one of the few bright spots for Oakland in 2023. The 29-year-old had an ugly July but posted a fantastic 2.35 ERA across five starts in August. He had four of those starts qualify as quality starts, though a horrendous A’s offense has failed to turn those into wins. While that means we won’t be betting on Blackburn to win any games in September, we are all over this strikeout total.

As the A’s starter has improved his ERA, he has also boosted his strikeout numbers. He has struck out more than four batters in six of his previous seven starts, meaning this total is set far too low. We see him turning in at least six innings of work tonight, leading to the easiest prop bet cover of the weekend.

While Blackburn’s recent play alone has us jumping on this bet, it isn’t the only advantage he’ll have tonight. The Angels lineup has the sixth-highest strikeout total in the league, and that was before they waived many of their key bats. Now they have a roster filled with AAA-level talent, and they will make Blackburn and the A’s look like playoff contenders tonight. 

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

358 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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