Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Orioles to Fall Hard Back Down to Reality

With Sean Burke on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Baltimore Orioles as they face off against an arm who creates Whiffs at a high rate. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees with two productive pitchers battling it out against a pair of lineups who struggle with making contact.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Monday, June 29

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Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles - Sean Burke vs. Shane Baz (6:35 PM, EST)

With Sean Burke consistently generating Strikeouts, expect the Baltimore Orioles to struggle to match his aggression and be held out of scoring position.

Under 0.5 Run (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After a slow start to the year, the Baltimore Orioles have started to claw their way back up the wildcard standings, sitting just 2.5 games back for the last spot in the playoffs. Even during their recent hot stretch, their offense has still struggled with making contact, ranking below league average in Hit Rate and in Strikeout Rate.

Unfortunately for the Orioles, their struggles with making contact are poised to persist against the Chicago White Sox as they face off against Sean Burke who is averaging an ERA of 3.71 while generating one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. Especially with his back end narrowing the width of the Orioles gaps in the outfield, surrounding Burke with a group who ranks in the top-12 in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, Shance Baz has a great opportunity to round back into form by exploiting a White Sox lineup who also grades out poorly in Contact Rate. Even with his back end underwhelming in coverage, Baz possesses more than enough individual production to take advantage of the White Sox lack of contact ability at the plate as his FIP of 3.84 indicates.

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Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees - Casey Mize vs. Ryan Weathers (7:05 PM, EST)

With reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge out of the lineup, expect the New York Yankees top of their order to get off to a slow start in their daunting matchup against Casey Mize. This sudden absence could also lead to a noticeable shift in the current AL MVP odds.

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, Casey Mize has been dominant, averaging an ERA of 2.95, a WHIP of 1.069, and a FIP of 2.78 in 11 appearances. Mize’s success on the mound stems from his elite command and pin point accuracy, giving up less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Heading into Monday night, expect Mize to continue to thrive by attacking a New York Yankees lineup who resides near the bottom of the board in Hit Rate. The production Mize receives from his defense also helps lower the probability of him getting burned by an Error, fielding a back end who ranks above league average in Fielding Percentage.

Like Mize, Ryan Weathers has also been efficient with his starts this season, averaging an ERA of 3.95 and a WHIP of 1.142 while generating more than one Strikeout per inning. With the Tigers lineup ranking in the bottom fifteen in Hit Rate, RBIs, Runs Scored, and in OPS, expect Weathers to match Mize’s hot start and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics - Eric Lauer vs. Gage Jump - With Eric Lauer on the mound, the Athletics top of their order will be able to get on base from the opening pitch by countering an arm who is averaging a FIP of 6.18 while creating less than one Whiff per inning.

• Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Nick Lodolo vs. Robert Gasser - In a NL Central divisional matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, expect the Milwaukee Brewers to put Runs up on the board in the first inning as they face off against Nick Lodolo who is averaging an ERA of 5.59, a WHIP of 1.521, and a FIP of 5.38. This expected early scoring could have a noticeable impact on the latest NL Central odds.

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