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|Arizona Diamondbacks||+1.5 (-110)|
|Over 10 (-110)|
|Atlanta Braves||-1.5 (-110)|
|Under 10 (-110)|
Last night featured a high-scoring thriller between these two teams, leading to extended work for their bullpens. That will play a significant factor today, which is why we like the Braves to cover. Charlie Morton has a much better chance of going deep into a game than Ryne Nelson, which will make all the difference. Either Arizona will let the young starter struggle, or they will be forced to go to their tired bullpen. Either way, it will lead to an easy cover.
The Diamondbacks had one of the most impressive starts to the season, but things have started to go south of late. They lost five of their last seven games before the All-Star break and were swept in their first series after. It’s been an ugly run, which could be a sign that this surprise team is returning to Earth. They still have the talent to make a playoff run, but it won’t help them tonight against the Braves.
25-year-old Ryne Nelson (5-5, 4.98 ERA) will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight. While he has had some great starts, he has been hit hard for most of the season. Over his last two starts, Nelson has thrown 8 ⅔ innings and allowed nine runs (eight earned) on 18 hits. His inability to keep runners off the basepaths has been an issue all season, as evidenced by his ugly 1.44 WHIP. Add that to his 5.61 ERA during night games, and you can see why we are taking the run line tonight.
Arizona’s offense has been a big reason for their impressive run this season, but they have sputtered a bit over the last few weeks. Arizona can still put up monster run totals (as seen last night), but they will be challenged with Charlie Morton on the mound tonight. Expect him to quiet down this Arizona offense, leading to a lopsided loss for the D-backs.
The Braves have looked like the class of the NL this season, and they currently own the best record in the league. Atlanta’s +148 run differential is the third-best in baseball, which is made even more impressive when you consider they are in a good NL East division. They now lead the league in home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Atlanta was outslugged by the D-Backs last night, but the Braves will end their three-game losing streak tonight.
Morton (10-6, 3.20 ERA) continues to put up impressive numbers at 39 years old. The veteran has been a vital piece of the Braves' rotation and has been nearly unhittable in July. Morton has a 0.47 ERA across three starts this month, bouncing back after an average June. While he may not shut down this impressive Arizona offense tonight, we expect him to do enough to keep them contained deep into the game, allowing Atlanta to avoid relying on their weary bullpen.
We talked about the Braves' impressive offensive campaign above, which is largely due to a breakout campaign from Ronald Acuna Jr. The 25-year-old is a heavy betting favorite to win the NL MVP as he is on pace for a historic season. The right fielder is third in the league in OPS and batting average, ninth in home runs, and first in stolen bases. He is on pace to hit 40 home runs and steal over 60 bases, which would be one of the most impressive feats in the league. Expect him to feast on the struggling Nelson tonight to help lead the Braves to a big home win.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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