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My Pick: Over 9
Tonight’s pitching matchup has us hammering the over in this one. Both teams have seen the opposing starter before, and the result is going to be a lot of runs scored. We see that happening again today against Urquidy and Sale, who are still working their way back from injury. Both teams have been scoring many runs lately, a trend that will continue and lead to a high-scoring thriller in Houston tonight.
The Red Sox have outperformed expectations this season but have been buried in the loaded AL East. Boston sits four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 4.5 behind the Astros. The Sox have been playing better than Houston lately, thanks mainly to their surging offense. They will face a familiar face in Jose Urquidy tonight, which should give their lineup a chance for another big run total.
We love the chances for the Sox lineup today because of their past performance against Urquidy. While they don’t have much experience against the Astros starter, their stars have hit him hard. Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, and Alex Verdugo all have averages over .300 against Urquidy, which is going to lead to a problem for the Astros tonight.
Boston will send Chris Sale (5-3, 4.50 ERA) out to the mound tonight. The seven-time All-Star has missed most of the season with injuries, resulting in him making just his third start since June 1. He has not thrown more than five innings since his return, with mixed results. In his previous start, Sale allowed three runs (two earned) and three walks across 4 ⅓ innings. That came against the Nationals, meaning Sale will have a much tougher test tonight. Expect another short start that leads to at least four runs for Houston.
Houston has finally turned into the team we expected them to be this season, thanks mainly to the return of Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. The team also added former Cy Young winner Justin Verlander at the trade deadline, giving their rotation a badly needed boost. While they are improved, Houston has been struggling to string together wins. It has kept them behind the slumping Rangers in the AL West and allowed the resurgent Mariners to get back into the race. They will have a great chance to turn things around tonight, especially with their offense finally improving.
If it weren’t for Shohei Ohtani, Astros’ right fielder Kyle Tucker would be getting a lot of love for AL MVP. He has been fantastic all season, holding this offense together while Alvarez and Altuve were out. The return of those stars has sparked the rest of this offense, and six starters now have batting averages over .300 over the last week. That will be a problem for Sale tonight, which is a big reason we’re locking in the over.
Another big reason is Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy (2-3, 5.21 ERA), who is also returning from a significant injury. While he hasn’t been going deep into games, the righty has allowed just one run over his last seven innings pitched. That is promising, but expect to see a regression tonight. The 28-year-old was bad before his injury, and his 7.53 ERA in night games has us thinking he will return to that form tonight.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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