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This may be the safest bet of the day, as we have a matchup between two starting pitchers with a history of success in these games. While the offenses have been playing well, they are not putting up big run totals so far in the second half of the season. We see Freddy Peralta and Ben Lively delivering another pair of quality outings, leading to an easy cover of the under today.
The Reds lost the NL Central lead before the All-Star break but quickly lost it by dropping five straight games. They followed it by winning five straight, again closing the gap on Milwaukee. The good news is that their pitching has been fantastic, but their offense has struggled to generate runs. In their last six games with the Crew before this series, the Reds scored more than three runs just once. That includes a scoreless outing against tonight’s starter, Freddy Peralta.
Ben Lively (4-5, 3.88 ERA) is in just his second full MLB season since 2017. The 31-year-old has been an essential piece for this Reds team. Lively has served as a spot starter for the Reds this season and has become a solid arm in this rotation. While he doesn’t often go deep into games, he keeps runs off the board over four or five innings. Lively has seen the Brewers twice already this month, allowing two runs on seven hits across 9 ⅔ innings. He will cool this Brewers offense again today before handing the game over to a good Reds bullpen.
One reason the Reds' offense has declined is the slumps from Elly De La Cruz and Joey Votto. Votto’s struggles are particularly concerning, as he has just two hits since July 9. Cruz will figure things out, but at 39 years old, we may see Joey Votto's end. We see both struggling against Peralta today, leading to a low run total.
The Brewers have been a confusing team in 2023, but they may finally be finding some consistency. The Crew’s offense is improved, but their pitching has been among the league’s best. Their starting rotation has been good, but their bullpen is becoming one of the best in the league. Combine that with Peralta being on the mound tonight, and you can see why we are jumping on the under.
Freddy Peralta (6-8, 4.77 ERA) continues to struggle in 2023. His ERA and WHIP are his worst since 2019, and he has been unable to string quality starts together for much of the season. The good news for Peralta is that he will face a familiar foe in the Reds tonight. The 27-year-old dominated Cincinnati over the last two years, going 3-0 against them over his last four starts. That includes a fantastic performance earlier this month where he held the Reds to one hit and no runs over six innings. Look for Peralta to shut the Reds down again tonight, leading to a low-scoring slugfest between these rivals.
There has been a lot of coverage around the Brewers' offense over the last couple of weeks and for good reason. Christian Yelich is returning to his MVP form, while rookie Sal Frelick has been fantastic since making his MLB debut last week. However, the play of the rest of this offense hasn't been covered. Over the previous week, Willy Adames, Owen Miller, Brice Turang, and Jesse Winker have batting averages below .200. The Adames's struggles have been the most concerning, as his brief July resurgence appears to be coming to a close. Considering those struggles and the team’s previous play against Lively, it is hard to imagine the Brewers scoring more than four runs tonight.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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