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Odds taken from bet365
The bookmakers have made this an easy pick. Atlanta United have favorable odds in this tie as they’re the home side, but there’s not much going for them besides home advantage. Atlanta United have played one match more than New England but are two points behind in fifth place.
They’ve scored more goals but conceded more as well. More importantly, there isn’t a lot of value in picking Atlanta United. The New England Revolution have improved massively since last season, but goalscoring has been a bit of an issue for the team. Their top scorer Bobby Wood has scored just four goals all season.
Of course, this match could also end in a draw. New England are currently the better side but struggling for goals, and Atlanta United are the home team but concede too many. The odds for a draw are also quite valuable, so we suggest picking a draw for this match.
The last encounter between the two sides occurred in October 2022, when New England won 2-1. This was their fifth victory against Atlanta United in 11 games. Atlanta United have won three and drawn the three other matches. New England weren’t in the best shape last season but still won this match, so they’ll have a bit of an edge over their opponents in the coming fixture.
New England’s Giacomo Vrioni opened the scoring in the 32nd minute by slotting home from the penalty spot. Both sides had chances, but neither was clinical enough on the day. Josef Martinez thought he scored the equalizer in the 81st minute, but Gustavo Bou scored the winner four minutes later.
New England sat a bit deeper for most of the game, which is reflected in the possession stats (37%), but they managed to take 16 shots on goal, with five on target. Atlanta United also had their fair share of chances, with 19 shots on goal and four on target, but they couldn’t get their finishing boots on.
Atlanta United have looked a bit shaky recently and succumbed to their second draw in a row against Orlando City over the weekend. The match ended 1-1, with Kyle Smith putting Orlando City up in the 30th minute before Tyler Wolf’s 86th-minute strike leveled the scores to earn Atlanta United a point.
There wasn’t a lot between the two sides statistically. Orlando City had 51% of the possession and took 13 shots to Atlanta United’s 11, with the former taking five shots on target and the latter taking three. Atlanta United were the away side, so a draw isn’t the worst result, but two draws in a row is a bit underwhelming after the start they made to the season.
Atlanta United’s Greek forward Giorgos Giakoumakis has been outstanding all season, with eight goals in 11 matches. He’s just made six starts, so if fitness isn’t an issue, there’s no reason why he can’t hit the twenty-goal mark this season. The underlying numbers (5.9xG) suggest that he can continue at a similar rate for the rest of the season.
He has been key to Atlanta United’s attack this season. They lead the xG table in the Eastern Conference with New England and have scored more goals than any other side in the Eastern Conference so far (29), albeit they’ve played one game more than most of the other teams on the table.
It doesn’t make their goalscoring record any less impressive because Columbus are next in line on the goals-scored table with 26. The defense, however, hasn’t been as solid as the attacking unit. Atlanta United have conceded 25 goals so far, which is far too many for a side hoping to go deep in the playoffs. The underlying numbers don’t look great (18.5 xGA), but they’ve been a bit unfortunate to concede as many as they have.
They could be championship contenders if they can make a few tweaks in this area. They'll be a bit unpredictable until they sort out the backline and defensive organization. One thing’s for sure: their games make for great spectacles.
New England Revolution have also been a bit underwhelming in recent weeks and dropped points in their third league game in a row against Chicago Fire. It was a fantastic match which ended 3-3. New England got off to an awful start, conceding in the 10th minute to Georgios Koutsias and Andrew Farrel put the ball into his own net 12 minutes later to give the away side a 2-0 lead.
New England made amendments by scoring two in two minutes thanks to Noel Buck (38’) and Bobby Wood (40’). The first half ended with the scores level. New England started the second half brightly, but Chicago were able to withstand the pressure and scored in the 78th minute through Maren Haile-Sellasie. Chicago’s lead didn’t last long as Jozy Altidore scored five minutes later.
New England had 54% of the possession and took 16 shots to Chicago’s nine, but they were far too sloppy in defense to be worthy of all three points. Some of the goals conceded were avoidable, so the result was disappointing despite the comeback.
Bobby Wood has been New England Revolution’s top goalscorer with four goals this season, which is simply not enough for a team creating as many chances as New England. They have the best xG in the Eastern Conference, along with Atlanta United, but have significantly underperformed in the finishing department.
Carles Gill has also chipped in with three goals, but they need someone whose main job is scoring goals. Gill and Wood are excellent all-round forwards, but they can’t be expected to take on the goalscoring burden of the team. As long as this issue remains, New England won’t be able to play to their ceiling.
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With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]More info on Nikhil Kalro
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