NBA Predictions Today: Game 1 and Series Picks for Western Conference Finals

The NBA championship is officially a four-team race. The Eastern Conference semifinals were wrapped up Sunday night, and Monday night is Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. It’s hard for anybody to be surprised at the matchup in the Western Conference Finals.

However, navigating the shifting NBA Western Conference odds and placing bets on how the series will unfold is a whole other matter. We’ve taken a deep dive into the Thunder and the Spurs to come up with our best predictions for both Game 1 and the series.

Best NBA Predictions for Monday, May 18

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Thunder Beats Spurs by 6.5 Points in Game 1 (No, 51%)

It’s hard to predict against Oklahoma City because the Thunder has been dominant throughout the playoffs. But the Spurs are at a different level than the Suns and Lakers. They have cruised to this point, but the Thunder could be in for a rude awakening in Game 1. That doesn’t mean Oklahoma City will lose the game, but this game will be tight, so we’ll take the Spurs and the points.

Keep in mind the Spurs have plenty of lopsided wins on their playoff resume as well. They’ve consistently played at a high level despite picking up some losses. San Antonio is also 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread on the road during the playoffs. The Spurs are also 10-5 against the spread as road underdogs this season. They are ready to head to Oklahoma City and at least keep things close.

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Thunder vs. Spurs Over 220.5 Total Points in Game 1 (No, 51%)

In Game 1, both teams should be a little cautious, trying to ease their way into things and feeling each other out. That should be a recipe for a low-scoring game. Plus, both teams will be facing a far better defensive team than they’ve seen in the playoffs thus far. That alone should make it tough for either team to get too far past 100 points.

Defensively, the Spurs have allowed more than 110 points just once in the playoffs. The same is true for the Thunder, keeping teams below that threshold in seven of eight games. If that trend continues, there’s no path to a total of more than 220.5 points. Plus, in games in which they are a road underdog, the Spurs are 4-11 O/U, which is another trend that points to a low-scoring game.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists in Game 1 (Yes, 35%)

For a safer prediction, you can get Gilgeous-Alexander at 6+ or 7+ assists in Game 1. But since he’s the league MVP, we decided to take a chance on a more lucrative wager. Keep in mind that the Spurs will try to take the ball out of his hands and force someone else to beat them. Also, with Victor Wembanyama defending the basket, Gilgeous-Alexander may need to drive and dish more than usual.

Of course, Gilgeous-Alexander has racked up impressive assist numbers throughout the playoffs regardless of the opponent. He has at least six assists in all but one game during the postseason, so his base level for assists is high. In fact, Gilgeous-Alexander has at least eight assists in five of eight playoff games, giving this prediction a great value.

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Thunder Wins Series 4-3 (Yes, 21%)

With the Thunder going 8-0 in the playoffs thus far, it’s almost foolish to think they won’t win the series. But there is every reason to think the Spurs will give them a fight and force the series to seven games. San Antonio has dominated at home and proven it can win on the road, so this should be a back-and-forth series.

It’s worth noting that the Spurs won four of the five head-to-head meetings between these teams during the regular season. San Antonio is fully confident that it can beat the Thunder. Ultimately, Oklahoma City’s experience will help the Thunder advance. But this looks like it’ll be an entertaining series that goes the distance.

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