NBA Player Props Today: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama & More Picks

The conference finals stage of the NBA Playoffs has arrived, and after several 5-0 sweeps last week, I’m back to share my favorite player prop picks from tonight’s Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1 matchup. As bettors analyze the latest NBA Western Conference Finals odds, many are closely evaluating how this intense showdown will ultimately impact overall NBA Championship predictions.

Oddsmakers have the Thunder as a strong favorite to win the NBA Finals, despite the Spurs winning four of five matchups with OKC during the regular season. However, the teams split their two matchups in 2026, the last of which was a Spurs win on Feb. 4.

The winner of the upcoming series will face either the New York Knicks or the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals. That series will begin on Tuesday.

Here are my top Spurs vs. Thunder NBA player prop picks and bets for Game 1 today on Monday.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday, May 18

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Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 Points at FanDuel Sportsbook

This might sound hard to believe, but Wembanyama did not score more than 22 points in any of his five matchups with the Thunder. He shot 52.4 percent from the field across all five and was highly impactful, particularly on defense, although he did not dominate the scoring column, not to mention that he went under in four of six games in the previous round.

Wembanyama has a deep disdain for Chet Holmgren and the Thunder, and I expect him to use as much energy and intensity as he has in this series. That could still prove to be a hindrance, as he let his emotions get the best of him when he got ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the last round and is occasionally prone to pressing on offense.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Spurs have played Gilgeous-Alexander and most players straight up, trusting Stephon Castle and their guards to lock down the perimeter and to funnel players into Wembanayma. The other members of the Thunder will have trouble getting near the basket with Wemby waiting to send shots into the nearby seats, which should give Gilgeous-Alexander extra scoring looks.

The newly-crowned back-to-back MVP split the over/under in four games against the Spurs, but he did so while shooting a horrid 19 percent from three and taking fewer free-throws per game than he averaged for the year. He’s at home after extended rest, and I like his chances of hitting the over.

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Devin Vassell Over 11.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Vassell was used as the primary defender on Anthony Edwards to close the last round against the Minnesota Timberwolves, which he finished averaging a humble 12.3 points. He likely won’t have the same defensive responsibility in this series, freeing him up to exert more energy on the offensive end.

The 25-year-old scored five, five, 17, and 23 points in four games against the Thunder during the regular season. He isn’t the top option in the offense, but he also isn’t afraid to take shots when he gets his looks.

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Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 Rebounds (-122) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Hartenstein only participated in three matchups with the Spurs, all of which came in a one-and-a-half-week stretch in December. He hit the over in all three of those, despite never playing more than 26 minutes.

As productive as Hartenstein was against the Spurs and is on a general basis, I think that he could have a limited role in this series. The Thunder’s best offensive bet feels like it should be spacing the floor and drawing Wembanyama away from the cup, which they can’t do if Hartenstein is on the court.

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Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Threes (-166) at FanDuel Sportsbook

These aren’t the most attractive odds in the world, but that’s because this player prop makes a ton of sense. Holmgren never hit the over or attempted more than three threes in one game against the Spurs, who held their opponents to 31.9 percent shooting from deep in the playoffs.

The Spurs are a small team, and Holmgren should be able to drive closeouts against the majority of players who will see the floor. He went under in his last two games before taking a one-week break leading up to this series, and I like the chances of him staying below this number.

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