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The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets finally agreed on a long-awaited trade Monday that sent Aaron Rodgers to the Big Apple for a haul of draft picks.
Rodgers, a Super Bowl champion and four-time MVP that won the award in 2020 and 2021, has the most cache of any quarterback to suit up for the Jets since his predecessor, Brett Favre, and is arguably the best player to ever dawn the green and white.
The Jets had an impressive 2022 season while Rodgers showed the first real signs of his age. But how does his new landing spot impact his status as an MVP favorite, and how will the Jets’ Super Bowl and overall betting odds change? Here’s how it’s all shaping up.
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Rodgers is tied for seventh in the list of favorites to win the league’s highest individual honor in 2023 at +1600. He is joined by Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and up-and-coming Jacksonville Jaguars star Trevor Lawrence.
Two of the six players above Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes (+650) and Lamar Jackson (+1500), have already won MVPs. The other four in his way are Joe Burrow (+700), Josh Allen (+750), Justin Herbert (+1000), and Jalen Hurts (+1100). Hurts, Allen and Burrow finished directly behind Mahomes in last year’s voting, while Herbert did not receive a single vote.
Rodgers will have to rack up very impressive stats to keep pace with the young gunslingers that are taking over the league. Mahomes, during his MVP-winning season last year, threw for 5,250 yards despite losing and failing to replace Tyreek Hill during the offseason.
Rodgers, for comparison, has a career-best of 4,643 yards in a season—and that was 12 years ago.
Dak Prescott (+1800) and Justin Fields (+2000) are close behind Rodgers in the list of MVP odds. His replacement in Green Bay, Jordan Love, is at +3500, and the top non-quarterback is Minnesota Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson (+10000).
Most sportsbooks have the Jets as the sixth-most likely team to win the Super Bowl at +1400. That’s an implied probability of 6.67%.
According to BetMGM sportsbook, Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have the best odds to win the Lombardi Trophy (+650). The Buffalo Bills (+850), San Francisco 49ers (+900), Philadelphia Eagles (+900), and Cincinnati Bengals (+900) are also in front of the Jets.
The Dallas Cowboys (+1600), Chargers (+2000), and Detroit Lions (+2000) are also on the prowl—pun fully intended.
New York has not appeared in the playoffs since it lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2010 conference championship game. Ironically, that was the year that Rodgers got his lone Super Bowl ring against that same Steelers team.
The Jets have appeared in just one Super Bowl, and that was Super Bowl III in 1969. They defeated the Baltimore Colts 16-7 behind a solid performance from QB Joe Namath and 121 yards and a touchdown from running back Matt Snell.
The Chiefs are the biggest roadblock to the world championship. They have made three of the last five Super Bowls and been in the AFC Championship each of those years.
The Jets have the fourth-best odds to win the AFC Championship and are at +900 on DraftKings sportsbook. The Chiefs are the unsurprising favorites at +380, ahead of the Bengals (+450) and Bills (+475).
The Dolphins, Chargers, and Jaguars all have +1400 odds to win the AFC pennant, and the Baltimore Ravens are just behind at +1500. All other competitive teams are a clear tier behind in odds.
While something can be taken from the Jets’ most recent playoff appearance ending in them reaching the championship game, that was over a decade ago. The Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills have all proven they can show up in the playoffs and have produced a few of the most memorable moments and showdowns in modern NFL history.
As talented as Rodgers is, he has not been great in the postseason recently. He had 225 yards, no touchdowns and a 22.6 quarterback rating in his lone 2021 postseason appearance against the 49ers and was similarly disappointing in the 2019 NFC Championship Game. He was also outplayed by Tom Brady on his home field in the 2020 NFC Championship.
Rodgers is stepping into one of the toughest divisions in football not named the AFC West. FanDuel has the Bills as the favorite to win the AFC East at +130, while the Jets (+250) are just ahead of the Dolphins (+280)
The New England Patriots are a distant fourth (+750) but cannot be discounted because they have a head coach in Bill Belichick that has won six Super Bowls as the head man in charge and two as an assistant.
It’s been anything but plain sailing in the AFC East for the Jets lately. They have a woeful record of 5-25 against their rivals in the last five years including 16 of their last 18. Rodgers will almost certainly make them more competitive, but there’s a mentality that he must also help them move past.
The Bills have won the division crown each of the last three years, and the Patriots held it for all of the 11 seasons before that. New York has not won the AFC East since 2002 when Herm Edwards’ 9-7 squad won a tiebreaker over the Patriots and Dolphins, who were also 9-7. Buffalo was one game back at 8-8.
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Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
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