Best CJ Stroud Prop Bets: Joe Mixon to Alleviate Pressure Off of Stroud

• The Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award in 2023

• The Texans signed star wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Dalton Schultz in the offseason

• Texans ground game expected to play a bigger role with a healthy offensive line and Joe Mixon at running back

After winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award last season, CJ Stroud enters his sophomore year with even higher aspirations as one of the betting favorites to win the NFL MVP. He certainly has the tools around him to pull it off, especially after adding star wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Dalton Schultz in the offseason to join an already stacked group of pass catchers.

Better yet for the Texans' season-long outlook, they will finally get the support they need from their ground game to continue to apply pressure to opposing defenses with their offensive line back at full health and newly acquired Joe Mixon slotted as their starting running back. Mixon is one of the best passing catching backs in the league, giving Stroud another weapon at his disposal to work with.

As for where you can bet on CJ Stroud’s player props, Caesars Sportsbook has a wide range of markets for the star studded quarterback that you can wager on before the start of the NFL season. If you have not signed up yet with Caesars Sportsbook, you can get up to $1,000 First Bet on Caesars should you lose your initial wager after creating an account and making a deposit with the WSN promo code WSN1000.

Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook 

While we are not necessarily fading CJ Stroud in his first game of the season, we are backing the idea that their revamped ground game will play a bigger role than expected. With more carries on the ground comes less pass attempts through the air, directly affecting Stroud and the Texans' pass attack in the process. Any support from their ground game will be beneficial for their offense in the long run, forcing opposing defenses to stay balanced rather than cheat out in space to defend the pass. 

That was a common theme throughout last season as the Texans struggled to get their ground game going, finishing the year ranked 30th in Rush DVOA and 27th in Rush Success Rate. With Mixon in the fold, as well as running behind a healthy offensive line, expect the Texans to lean on their ground game more to help set up the pass attack. Especially since they get a friendly matchup against a lackluster Indianapolis Colts front seven, a unit that is equally underwhelmed in the same metrics in stopping the run.

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Under 275.5 Passing Yards (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Correlating this prop with our previously mentioned one, Stroud’s passing yards will be directly affected by the lack of pass attempts should their ground game succeed from the opening kick. Even with a beefed-up group of pass catchers after the acquisition of Stefon Diggs and tight end Dalton Schultz, Stroud will be hard-pressed to clear this mark with limited opportunities to do so.

The Colts' defense will also be expected to improve on last year's marks in defending the pass which will help us even more in cashing this under. The Colts' defense brings back a bulk of their secondary this season, a back end that ranked above league average in Def Pass DVOA, Success Rate, and EPA, as well as add first-round pick edge rusher Laiatu Latu to their line to help give them a more consistent pass rush after finishing last season ranked 19th in Pressure Rate.

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Under 0.5 Interception (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook 

One of Stroud’s many impressive feats last season comes from how efficient he was in the pocket, throwing just five total interceptions to his 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns. He managed to do this while under constant pressure as his offensive line spent the majority of the year decimated by injuries, finishing the year ranked 22nd in Adjusted Sack Rate and 19th in Line Yards.

With his offensive line back at full health, as well as potentially getting the benefit of a ground game, the Texans' pass attack should find themselves with more space in the open field to help get open as opposing defenses can no longer cheat out in coverage. With higher-quality passing lanes this season, expect Stroud to continue to excel at taking care of the ball while limiting the number of turnover-worthy plays through the air.

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CJ Stroud 2023 Stats

• Passing Yards: 4,108

• Passing Touchdowns: 23

• Interceptions: 5

• Completion Percentage: 63,9

• QBR: 57,5