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Week 14 of the NFL season is here, and we’re getting into the regular season’s final weeks.
The slate kicks off with the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. It concludes with a double-header for Monday Night Football including the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants and Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins.
Below are three of the best prop bets to make early in the week.
On Thursday Night Football, we have a battle of the backups, with Bailey Zappe and Mitchell Trubisky taking over under center for the Patriots and Steelers, respectively. Here, we’re targeting Trubisky, who’s making his first start of the season for the Steelers.
The Steelers are coming off a tough loss to the Arizona Cardinals 24-10 at home. Trubisky completed 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown in relief.
This week, he’ll face off against the Patriots, who currently hold the No. 2 overall pick and have just two wins.
Easy game for Trubisky incoming, right?
Well, not necessarily.
This season, the Patriots allowed just over one passing touchdown per game to opposing quarterbacks. Still, they’ve allowed just two over the past four weeks. There have been three games this season where they’ve allowed zero passing touchdowns, including last week against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Of course, Trubisky has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and they’re at home again. Still, despite their lack of firepower on offense, the Patriots defense has held up quite well despite their numerous injuries.
Getting +165 value here on a player going up against a defense that held Herbert to six points is worth a half-unit wager, at least.
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As you can tell by the -190 odds, the likelihood of Zappe throwing an interception is quite high, and we agree.
Here, he’s taking on a Steelers defense on the road in primetime that averages one interception per game against opposing quarterbacks.
There have been three games this season in which a quarterback has managed to leave a game against them and not throw an interception.
There is a scenario where Zappe plays extremely conservatively, resulting in no interceptions, similar to last week, where he completed 13 of 25 passes for 141 yards, no touchdowns, and no interception. Still, the Chargers defense is among the worst in the league.
Look for this Steelers pass rush with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith to force some bad decisions on the young signal caller, resulting in at least one interception.
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Sometimes, there are just some prop bets that, regardless of the value of the odds, you have to place some kind of wager on because of how glaring and obvious they appear.
Here, we have Stafford under 1.5 passing touchdowns.
This season, the Ravens allow just 0.83 passing touchdowns per game. They’ve allowed only three quarterbacks to have multiple passing touchdowns in a game, which includes Joe Burrow twice and, surprisingly, Joshua Dobbs.
The Rams have weapons like Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp at their disposal, but this Ravens defense has been ferocious all season, allowing just around 200 passing yards per game and intercepting quarterbacks close to once per game.
For Stafford, he’s been red hot recently with seven touchdowns over his past two games, but before that, he had eight of nine games with one touchdown pass or less.
With this game taking place in Baltimore, look for the Rams offense to struggle, with Stafford getting no more than one passing touchdown as the Ravens continue to push for that No. 1 seed in the AFC.
After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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