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It’s getting comical — I can nearly leave the same intro each week as the parlay somehow barely misses by a hair on one leg. This week we can blame Neville Gallimore and the Dallas defense for committing several penalties while letting Tommy DeVito drive downfield for a touchdown in a meaningless blowout with a minute left. What a sentence that is.
But yet again, hitting on four of five legs provides you with plenty of ammunition to build your own from the tips below. So let’s keep that good streak going, and hopefully hit all five in Week 11.
|Pick||Odds||Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)|
|CIN @ BAL: Bengals u2.5 TDs||-150|
|$10 to win|
|PIT @ CLE: ALT UNDER 39.5||-174|
|$10 to win|
|NYJ @ BUF: NEITHER team to score 30+ points||-225|
|$10 to win|
|MIN @ DEN: ALT Vikings +3.5||-157|
|$10 to win|
|PHI @ KC: Travis Kelce Anytime TD||-115|
|$10 to win|
Thursday night games are always a good source for unders, but this bet goes beyond that.
The Ravens defense has been among the best of the best in 2023. No team allows fewer PPG than Baltimore (15.7). While Week 10 against Cleveland was a shock to many, the Bengals aren’t in the best shape to continue the scoring trend against a talented defense.
Tee Higgins is expected to miss Week 11 with the same hamstring injury that sidelined him in Week 10. Ja’Marr Chase thrived against Houston, but entered the game questionable with a back injury and now has a short week to do it all over again.
The Bengals also average just 17.8 PPG on the road, almost five points fewer than at home. Expect Cincinnati to fall short of three touchdowns in a tough matchup already on a short week.
This feels somewhat self-explanatory, right?
The Steelers offense is riding a new high (kind of) over the last couple of weeks, but a Browns defense that has been a buzzsaw to most opponents is set to provide a stark reminder that both of these teams are defined by its defense.
Not that either team needs the reminder. Cleveland allows 18.9 PPG and Pittsburgh allows 20.2 PPG, sixth and 11th in the NFL, respectively. Interestingly, the Browns average a ridiculous 19.6 points FEWER at home than they do on the road, which should only help the under. These two teams are going to battle it out in a physical affair that is sure to lead to at least one fight.
Buy a few points and trust both defenses to figure it out, keeping at least one of these teams safely out of the 20-point range.
These teams both desperately need a win. But neither team is going to blow up on offense doing so.
Buffalo allows the fifth-fewest PPG in the NFL and the sixth-fewest PPG at home. That’s tough for anyone, especially for a Jets team that lacks any consistency under center with Zach Wilson. New York also has hit the 30-point mark just once, which came against a reeling Denver defense earlier this season.
The Bills aren’t impressing anyone, either. Buffalo hasn’t surpassed 30 points since Oct. 1. Now the Bills take on another strong defense in the Jets, who sit slightly behind Buffalo in PPG allowed at seventh.
Time to drink the NASA-sponsored Kool-Aid. Josh Dobbs has had a terrific start with Minnesota, and you can get the Vikings as underdogs without buying a single point if you want to.
For the sake of a parlay let’s buy a point to get to +3.5. Justin Jefferson has a chance to return in Week 11, which would obviously be a game-changing move to take advantage of before sportsbooks adjust. Even if he doesn’t suit up, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have proven over and over again that the duo can get the job done.
Few teams have more momentum than the Vikings, who suddenly find themselves in the middle of the wild card race within the NFC. On the other side of the field rests the Denver Broncos, who were gifted a win by the Buffalo Bills in Week 10. The Broncos have not been all too impressive, and the Vikings should be trusted to keep this one close after scoring 31 and 27 points with Dobbs over the last two weeks, respectively.
I have zero information on whether Taylor Swift will be attending this game at Arrowhead Stadium, but it matters not. Kelce gets to take on an Eagles defense that sits tied for dead last in passing touchdowns allowed.
That’s just the start. Only the Saints and the Jets has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends this season, with the Eagles sitting tied with several teams behind the aforementioned two teams.
Kelce is already tied for fifth in red zone targets despite missing Week 1 and having his bye. He should break a two-game touchdown drought against Philadelphia on Monday night.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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