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You know the drill. Another week, another parlay that barely misses by one leg.
Buffalo kicked a field goal with just over five minutes left in the game to exceed 30 points, crushing our parlay on the “easiest” leg as the other four legs cleared. All we can do is put on a brave face and be thankful for another week of football with a chance to be perfect.
Here is the weekly parlay for Week 12.
|Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)
|GB @ DET: Lions -7.5
|$10 to win $19.25
|ALT Jared Goff UNDER 267.5 passing yards
|$10 to win $29
|WAS @ DAL: Micah Parsons o.75 sacks
|$10 to win $45.57
|MIA @ NYJ: ALT MIA -9.5
|$10 to win $83.23
|BUF @ PHI: DeVonta Smith o55.5 receiving yards
|$10 to win $155.61
For the first time this year, I’m selling points here. This could be a massacre coming from a Detroit team that is usually on the wrong side of Thanksgiving games.
The Packers have several key injuries off a short week, with Aaron Jones, Luke Musgrave, and De’Vondre Campbell all likely to miss Thursday’s tilt. That’s not to mention rookie Jayden Reed, who was added to the injury report this week, or Darnell Savage who has a small chance to return off the IR.
Beyond that, this is a near-perfect matchup for Detroit’s fifth-ranked rushing attack. The Packers allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game. This game will all but knock the Packers out of the NFC North race, and after years of embarrassing losses on Thanksgiving day, expect the Lions to serve up a hot dish of revenge.
This one is fairly self-explanatory, right?
The Packers can’t defend the run, and David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs are going to see a ton of work in this game. Goff has had 32 or fewer attempts in all but two games this season, one of which came against Green Bay in Week 4. He had 210 yards in that game. He’s surpassed this alternate total in five games this year, but Green Bay will not force him to do so in Week 12.
There’s no need to be redundant with the reasoning here.
Every week I place a bet on a pass-rusher to get a sack against Washington. Almost every week, it’s a sweat-free hit.
Let’s not overthink this one, and bet on Micah Parsons to get home for a sack. He’s already gone on record about wanting revenge after last year’s Dallas’ loss to Washington which lost the Cowboys home-field advantage in the playoffs. Parsons is a good bet to get a sack on a normal day, and seeing him with any extra motivation has me saying an extra prayer for Sam Howell on this holiday week.
Washington is one of three teams allowing four sacks or more per game this year, sitting at 31st in sacks per game allowed (4.6).
I jumped on this line right after the Jets revealed Tim Boyle to be the starter. The line has already slid to -10, and it could keep moving.
The Dolphins are a good football team, and the Jets simply are not — at least, on offense. If Boyle was a legitimate starting option that was better than Zach Wilson, the Jets would’ve rolled him out weeks ago.
Boyle is there because he is familiar with Nathaniel Hackett and Aaron Rodgers. He won’t succeed against a Miami defense that has started to find its groove, ranking sixth in PPG allowed (17) and 11th in takeaways per game (1.7) over its last three games.
DeVonta Smith hasn’t had the banner year many expected, but the absence of Dallas Goedert across the middle of the field opens up a lot of volume for the Eagles wide receiver.
Goedert was inactive from Week 10-14 last season. Across those five games, Smith averaged five catches for 84 yards on 8.4 targets. His targets come much further downfield — just like we saw in Week 11 — and therefore create some good value on a line of 55.5 receiving yards.
Smith had 99 yards against the Chiefs in Week 11 on six receptions, which was a tough matchup to begin with. He should keep the momentum going against a Buffalo secondary that ranks middle of the pack against the passing attack and continues to lose bodies in the secondary.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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