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Well, at least our parlay had the decency to end early on Thanksgiving. Once more, we hit on more legs than we missed, but when it comes to parlays, we need perfection.
The search continues in Week 13.
|Payout (Increasing with each leg, top to bottom)
|SEA @ DAL: ALT UNDER 49.5 total points
|$10 to win $15.88
|MIA @ WAS: ALT Dolphins -6.5
|$10 to win $25.66
|LAC @ NE: ALT UNDER 43.5 total points
|$10 to win $39.77
|DET @ NO: LIONS -4
|$10 to win $76.27
|DEN @ HOU: UNDER 47.5
|$10 to win $143.71
When in doubt, bet the under in prime-time games.
Prime-time games have a 29-9 record with “under” bets on the total. While Monday Night Football has surprisingly led the way in the category, attacking high totals on Thursday night is a good mindset to have this year.
Buying a few points to get to 49.5 makes this a strong parlay leg at -170. Only one of Seattle’s games since Week 3 have gone over 49.5, with Dallas going over 49.5 in five of their 11 games. Dallas has been an offensive powerhouse over the last month, but it has also enjoyed a soft schedule.
The Seahawks should keep this one relatively close, with both defenses stepping up at key times this year. Both will get a chance to do it once more on Thursday.
We hit on Miami -9.5 against the New York Jets last week. It seems only right to ride with the Dolphins yet again, this time against the Commanders.
Washington has lost eight games this season, six of which have come by at least seven points. If you trust Miami to defeat Washington — which you should — this leg adds a nice boost at minimal risk.
The Dolphins did lose pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips to a torn Achilles, and Jevon Holland is fighting a Week 12 knee injury. But the possible return of De’Von Achane and hopefully Terron Armstead more than make up for it, not to mention the overall talent difference between the two sides.
The Chargers have faced five teams who are currently under .500 this year like the Patriots, allowing just 13.8 PPG on average to those teams. New England, who managed just seven points against the New York Giants, don’t seem likely to be the outlier in Week 13.
That would leave roughly 30 points left on this alternate over/under, more than enough to account for any Justin Herbert magic that may occur. Given that the Chargers have scored 30 points or more just three times this year, it seems fair to bet the under with confidence in a December game up in Foxborough.
No Chris Olave (concussion), no Michael Thomas (IR, knee) and potentially no Rashid Shaheed (quad). The Saints seem destined to enter Sunday with none of their top-three wide receivers, and unless Taysom Hill can truly do it all, New Orleans will struggle on offense.
Detroit looked awful in Week 12, getting blown out by Green Bay on Thanksgiving day. If any team needs a bounce-back performance it’s the Lions, who should get the chance against a mediocre Saints squad.
New Orleans is currently on a two-game losing streak, failing to surpass 20 points in either game. With how Detroit can put up points — normally, at least — the Lions should handle the Saints with some flair.
I don’t like betting against C.J. Stroud and an in-form Denver team carrying a five-game winning streak. But at the same time, I’m not. I’m just betting against a shoot-out.
Scoring is down as a whole this year, making games with high lines at 47.5 an interesting target. This bet hinges on a Denver defense continuing its impressive form. The Broncos sit first in takeaways per game and have allowed just 16 PPG over its winning streak. That span includes teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Vikings, who all have exhibited moments of offensive brilliance.
While Stroud looks fantastic, he could be limited to a solid, unspectacular Week 12. Meanwhile, the Broncos don’t have the highest ceiling on offense. They have scored 30 points or more just twice this year, the last of which came in Week 4. With neither team likely to blow either way on scoring, taking the under at 47.5 feels just about right.
Feel free to buy some points if you want to avoid added risk.
Michael Sicoli has been writing about fantasy football and betting within the NFL space since 2020. He works as a writer and content creator with ClubFantasyFFL and runs an NFL defensive (IDP) newsletter with The IDP Guys. A graduate from Quinnipiac University, Michael is a long-time NFL fan with a love for soccer and the NBA.More info on Michael Sicoli
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