Best Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Bets: Who Will Shine in Week 9’s Most Anticipated Game

• Patrick Mahomes is averaging 35 rushing yards per game this season, ranking second on Kansas City’s roster in total rushing yards

• The Kansas City defense has allowed eight passing touchdowns in eight games, and just three total touchdowns in its last three games

• Opposing tight ends are averaging fewer than four catches per game against the Chiefs

No matter your rooting interest, every NFL fan should be watching this week’s game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. This has become the pre-eminent rivalry in the AFC this decade, with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes leading their respective teams against each other nine times since the 2020 season, including four playoff games. In short, this is a must-watch game.

It almost goes without saying that the Chiefs and Bills have the shortest odds to win the AFC this season, so this week’s game could just be the preamble to another playoff meeting. Of course, Allen is the reigning MVP, and he opened the season as the favorite to win MVP honors again. However, given his play in recent weeks, Mahomes has surpassed him as the favorite to win NFL MVP in 2025.

Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Bets

Even beyond Allen and Mahomes, there will be tons of star power on the field in this game. That makes it perfect for player props, as opposed to trying to predict how the game itself will play out.

The odds for these props come from bet365 Sportsbook, which is ranked as one of the best prop betting sites. New users who sign up with our promo code WSN365 will get $200 in bonus bets after placing an initial $5 wager.

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Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook 

Typically, Josh Allen is the greater running threat between the two quarterbacks. However, Mahomes actually has more rushing yards this season, albeit with Allen playing one fewer game. Nevertheless, Mahomes is Kansas City’s second-leading rusher and has been using his legs with great efficiency in 2025.

Oddsmakers have been a little slow to catch up to this trend, as Mahomes has gone over 26.5 rushing yards in four straight games and six of eight games overall. In the games the Chiefs have lost, Mahomes has run more, as was the case in their win over the Lions. With this being a big game that could have ramifications for playoff seeding, Mahomes will hold nothing back. That means he’ll be willing to run if he needs to, and with the Bills missing their two best linebackers, Mahomes is set up for success with his legs in this game.

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Josh Allen Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+100) at bet365 Sportsbook

Allen failed to throw multiple touchdown passes last week, doing so for just the second time in seven games this season. In a 40-9 win over the Panthers, the Bills didn’t need him to throw the ball a lot. While that won’t be the case this week, it’ll be much harder for Allen to throw the ball effectively and find the end zone against a Kansas City defense that’s allowing just 16.4 points per game.

On the season, the Chiefs have allowed just eight passing touchdowns. Justin Herbert threw three of them in Week 1, so in their last seven games, the Chiefs have conceded just five touchdowns through the air. In fact, they’ve only allowed three total touchdowns in their last three games. The kicker is that Allen has been held to just one touchdown pass in three of his last four games against the Chiefs, so this is a smart fade that comes with plus odds.

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Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5 Receptions (-135) at bet365 Sportsbook 

In addition to preventing passing touchdowns, the Chiefs have been great at defending tight ends. To be fair, the Bills have been even better against opposing tight ends. But the Kansas City defense is giving up fewer than four receptions and 40 yards per game from tight ends.

Needless to say, that’s bad news for Kincaid, who is already having an up-and-down season. He missed Buffalo’s loss to the Falcons and made just one catch on three targets last week against Carolina. Kincaid is also sharing reps with Dalton Knox, which will make it harder to make a big impact. Given Kansas City’s success defending tight ends this year, Kincaid is another player to fade in this game.

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