The Kansas City Chiefs are listed as a short betting favorite to win the Super Bowl
The Chiefs have the opportunity to be the first team to win three straight Super Bowls
Philadelphia’s defense ranks top-5 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate
In their quest of winning three straight Super Bowls, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs offense face their toughest test of the season as the Philadelphia Eagles rank top-5 in Def DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. With the Eagles' defense playing at a very high level at every area of the field, value shades towards the full game under as the Chiefs will struggle to get into scoring territory at a consistent rate.
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Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | -120 | -1.5 (-105) | Over 48.5 (-110) |
Philadelphia Eagles | +102 | +1.5 (-115) | Under 48.5 (-110) |
After suffering an injury late in the regular season, Jalen Hurts has been noticeably less than 100% throughout the playoffs. His injury has hampered his ability to move in the pocket, leaving him prone to taking ill-advised sacks when under pressure. This may spell trouble against a Chiefs defense who ranks fifth overall in pressure Rate and fourth in Blitz Rate.
Should his offensive line struggle to hold their ground, then Hurts will have to get the ball out of his hands quicker than anticipated which may lead to an uptick in turnover-worthy throws. The Chiefs' relentless pressure also lessens the amount of time his pass catchers have to create separation from their coverage, leaving Hurts with low-quality passing lanes for him to throw to. Should Saquon Barkley struggle to command defensive attention to the box, then expect the Eagles offense to stall out at a high rate.
Even in a down year for the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback, Patrick Mahomes just keeps on finding ways to win. Unfortunately for the three-time Super Bowl MVP, the Eagles defense has been one of the more formidable units in the league this season as they grade out very well at every area of the field. Heading into the Super Bowl, the Eagles defense ranks first overall in Def DVOA and third in Def EPA.
Their defensive line is capable of collapsing pockets on their own, allowing the Eagles to anchor their linebackers in coverage to help slow down high-powered pass attacks. This also allows them to utilize a linebacker to bracket Travis Kelce off the line and keep a body on his hip to help neutralize Mahomes' most reliable target. With the rest of his pass catchers having to deal with a secondary who ranks first overall in Def Pass Success Rate, expect Mahomes to struggle to move the ball through the air.
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After the Eagles' defense collapsed at the end of last year, their ownership spent the offseason retooling that side of the field to help turn them back into a well-rounded contender. Not only have the Eagles' defense managed to round back into form, but they were arguably the best unit in the league this season. Their revamped secondary has played a major role in their resurgence as their back end ranks top-3 in Def Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.
Their defensive scheme helps them grade out well in coverage as the Eagles anchor their linebackers across the middle at one of the highest rates in the league. This will help them lessen the quality of the Chiefs passing lanes while also allowing them to spy Mahomes to try and bottle him up before he takes off and runs. Speaking of the run, expect the Chiefs' running backs to get stuffed at the line at a high rate as the Eagles' front seven ranks top-6 in Def Rush DVOA and Success Rate.
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Even though both offenses are prone to stalling out in this contest at a high rate as previously mentioned, the Eagles still have a more favorable path to secure the win. Especially if their offensive line can ward off the Chiefs' pressure, giving Hurts the ability to pick apart their gaps in coverage as the Chiefs' secondary ranks 17th overall in Def Pass DVOA, 15th in Def Pass EPA, and 17th in Def Pass Success Rate.
Their struggles against the pass stems from their heavy use of the blitz as it leaves their corners on islands while opening up wider gaps in coverage across the middle. This may lead to a big game from Dallas Goedert as the Eagles' tight end excels at exploiting gaps in coverage while playing behind the opposing linebackers. Should their pass attack force the Chiefs to call off the blitz, then this gives Saquon Barkley higher-quality rushing lanes for him to exploit to help sustain drives down the field
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Instead of betting on Saquon Barkley to win the Super Bowl MVP at his short odds, build this correlated same game parlay as he will essentially need to score multiple touchdowns to beat out his own quarterback in the voting. Especially since his success will revolve around Jalen Hurts being able to make the Chiefs sit back in coverage which feeds into his own passing stats.
Follow our link to find the best Saquon Barkley Super Bowl prop bets.
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Check out the latest episode of our Ride the Line podcast, in which hosts Tanner Kern and Grant Mitchell discuss the Chiefs vs Eagles showdown and share their best Super Bowl bets.
When: Sunday, February 9 at 6:30 PM ET
Where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA
How to Watch: Fox, Tubi, NFL+
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Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter is dealing with an illness
Travis Kelce announces he wants to play for at least another three years
Skyy Moore is trending towards doubtful while dealing with an injury
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