Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 10)
My prediction for the final score is Chargers 24, Raiders 22.
How to Watch: Chargers vs Raiders
What: Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
When: Thursday Night Football, November 7 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: RingCentral Coliseum in Oakland, California
How (TV): NFLN
Be sure to also check out our latest Super Bowl LIV Odds and Predictions.
Latest point spread: Chargers -1.0, Raiders +1.0
Get ready for an exciting AFC West fight on Thursday Night Football featuring the two 4-win teams hoping to catch up to the Kansas City Chiefs, and that’s the 4-5 Los Angeles Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders.
Both teams are coming off Week 9 wins against NFC North opponents, and both football franchises are still picturing a postseason appearance and a fifth win against a divisional opponent would make that goal a little more achievable.
The Chargers and Raiders both have fairly effective passing attacks but only one of them dominates on the ground, so let’s take a quick look at how these two AFC West rivals measure up against each other for their Week 10 Thursday night showdown.
The 4-5-0 Los Angeles Chargers
If you watched the Los Angeles Chargers take care of Green Bay Packers in Week 9 by completely getting after and shutting down quarterback Aaron Rodgers, then you should have a whole new level of respect for this team that at times seems incapable of winning big games anymore.
Philip Rivers let his team’s rushing attack get the job done on offense (Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for 32 carries for 150 yards on the ground and 2 touchdowns) while the defense behind Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram took care of Rodgers with 3 sacks, limiting him to just 161 passing yards and a single touchdown.
A win against the Raiders on Thursday night and these Chargers are back to .500 and right back in the playoff hunt, at least as an AFC Wild Card team, but their rush defense will have to step up for this one since the Raiders have a rookie running back that’s making a huge impact and a big name for himself.
The 4-4-0 Oakland Raiders
The Oakland Raiders do indeed have a rookie running back who is making a splash in the NFL – Josh Jacobs is the sixth most productive back right now after carrying the ball 152 times for 740 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, while also catching 11 balls for another 102 yards.
Quarterback Derek Carr is still under center in Oakland, and he continues to put up solid numbers, including 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and a completion percentage of 71.2, but it’s his barely above average red zone efficiency (62.07, ranked 13th in the league) that could be keeping the W’s off the board in Oakland.
The Raiders are 3-1 at home this season, so expect them to take full advantage of their boisterous hometown crowd on Thursday night, fans that should give them all the help they can given that there will only be three more home games after that one before the Raiders leave Oakland for good.
What’s at Stake: Chargers vs Raiders
These two divisional rivals have met 119 total times (including 1 postseason game), with Los Angeles winning 54 of those times and Oakland winning the other 63 games, plus there has been two tie ballgames.
The last time these two teams met up was in November of last season when the Chargers traveled to Oakland to beat the Raiders 20-6, their second win over the Raiders that year.
If the Chargers win this matchup, they’ll move to 5-5-0 and stay two games behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, who enter Week 10 with a 6-3 record and the possibility that their starting quarterback Patrick Mahomes will return to the lineup.
But if the Raiders come out winners in this one, they’ll be 5-4-0 and bring their win-streak up to two games, and with their next two opponents being easy ones (Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets) they could stay close to the Chiefs in the AFC West and maybe a Wild Card playoff spot.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 10 Chargers-Raiders matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Chargers and the Raiders next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
Los Angeles Chargers Overall Offense
- Ranked 11th overall in 2018
- Ranked 16th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The Los Angeles Chargers have the 6th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 281.3 yards per game through the air after nine weeks.
Quarterback Philip Rivers is currently under center in Los Angeles and ranked the most productive passer in the league having completed 223-of-333 passes for 2,609 yards and 12 touchdowns with 7 interceptions and a completion percentage of 67.0.
The Chargers’ leading receiver after nine weeks is tight end Keenan Allen, who is currently ranked 13th in the league with 54 catches for 657 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Rushing attack: The Chargers’ rushing attack is ranked 28th in the NFL after averaging 79.4 yards on the ground per game.
Austin Ekeler is the Chargers’ best runner and he is currently the 34th in the NFL with 84 carries for 321 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
Los Angeles has scored 183 total points this season, or 20.3 per game, which is the 21st best total in the NFL.
Los Angeles Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 10: offensive tackle Sam Tevi (knee).
Injury notes: quarterback Easton Stick (coach’s decision), wide receiver Geremy Davis (hamstring) and running back Troymaine Pope (coach’s decision) are listed as inactive, while wide receivers Travis Benjamin (quadriceps), Dylan Cantrell (shoulder) and Dontrelle Inman (quadriceps), center Mike Pouncey (neck), tight ends Sean Culkin (Achilles) and Andrew Vollert (knee-ACL) and offensive guards Forrest Lamp (lower leg) and Koda Martin (undisclosed) have been placed on injured reserve.
Oakland Raiders Overall Offense
- Ranked 23rd overall in 2018
- Ranked 11th overall in 2019
Passing attack: Oakland has the 15th best passing attack in the league right now after averaging 245.2 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Derek Carr is the 17th most productive NFL passer after completing 178-of-250 passes for 1,984 yards and 13 touchdowns with 4 interceptions and a completion percentage of 71.2.
The Raiders’ best receiver is currently tight end Darren Waller, who has caught 48 passes for 548 yards with 3 touchdowns in nine weeks, ranked 21st among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Oakland has the 6th ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 136.4 yards on the ground per game.
Josh Jacobs is the Raiders’ best runner and now he is the 6th most productive in the NFL with 152 carries for 740 yards and 6 touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
Oakland has scored 182 points in 2019, averaging 22.8 per game, which is currently the T-16th highest scoring average in the NFL.
Oakland Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 10: offensive tackle Trent Brown (knee) and center Rodney Hudson (lower leg).
Injury notes: quarterback DeShone Kizer (coach’s decision), offensive tackle Brandon Parker (coach’s decision) and wide receivers Keelan Doss (coach’s decision) and Dwayne Harris (foot) are listed as inactive, while center Jordan Devey (pectoral), quarterback Nathan Peterman (elbow), running back Isaiah Crowell (Achilles) and guard Cameron Hunt (undisclosed) have been placed on injured reserve.
These two teams are about equally effective through the air, but the Raiders are a lot better on the ground, so they will have the offensive advantage over the Chargers on Thursday night.
Defensive Stats Comparison
Los Angeles Chargers Overall Defense
- Ranked 9th overall in 2018
- Ranked 7th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Chargers have the 5th best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for just 208.7 yards through the air per game.
Los Angeles’s defense has 7 team interceptions and they have 21 sacks total.
Run coverage: The Chargers are the 20th best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 114.1 yards per game.
Los Angeles has allowed their opponents to score just 168 total points, or 18.7 per game, which is the 8th least in the NFL.
Chargers Defensive Players to Watch
The best tackler for the Chargers after nine weeks is outside linebacker Thomas Davis – he has 67 total tackles (T-14th most) with 3 of those for a loss, plus a sack and 2 quarterback hits.
One of the big Bosa brothers plays for the Chargers, Joey Bosa, the Los Angeles defensive end who is tied for the 4th most sacks with 8.5, plus he has 17 quarterback hits, a forced fumble and 46 total tackles (11 for a loss).
The chargers have two players in their secondary with two interceptions apiece – cornerback Casey Hayward, who also has 9 passes defended and 20 total tackles, and defensive back Rayshawn Jenkins, who also has 5 passes defended and 36 total tackles.
Chargers Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 10: linebacker Denzel Perryman (knee).
Injury notes: defensive tackles Cortez Broughton (illness) and Justin Jones (shoulder) and Brandon Mebane (knee) and safety Roderic Teamer (groin) are listed as inactive, while linebacker Tre’Von Johnson (undisclosed) and safeties Nasir Adderley (hamstring), Derwin James (foot) and Adrian Phillips (forearm) have been placed on injured reserve.
Oakland Raiders Overall Defense
- Ranked 26th overall in 2018
- Ranked 28th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Raiders’ defense is 32nd best against the pass (in other words, the worst), allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 297.5 yards per matchup.
Oakland’s defense has 4 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 15 total sacks after nine weeks.
Run coverage: The Raiders are 7th best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 92.5 yards per game.
Oakland has allowed their opponents to score 216 total points this season, or 27 per matchup, which is 26th fewest (or 7th most) in the NFL.
Raiders Defensive Players to Watch
Tahir Whitehead is definitely worth watching – the Raiders’ outside linebacker has 57 tackles (3 for a loss) plus a quarterback hit.
The best quarterback sacker on the Raiders right now is defensive end Benson Mayowa, who has 5.5 sacks plus 6 quarterback hits, two forced fumbles and 10 total tackles (4 for a loss).
Also keep an eye on free safety Erik Harris, who has an interception for the Raiders that he ran back for a 30-yard touchdown, plus he’s posted 5 passes defended and 41 total tackles.
Raiders Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 10: defensive end Josh Mauro (groin).
Injury notes: linebacker Vontaze Burfict (suspension) and is listed as out, while linebacker Marquel Lee (ankle), cornerbacks Makinton Dorleant (undisclosed), Isaiah Johnson (concussion) and D.J. Killings (undisclosed) and safety Johnathan Abram (shoulder – labrum) have been placed on injured reserve.
The Raiders might be better against the run than the Chargers are, but overall Los Angeles is better defensively (picks, sacks, points allowed) and will have a slight advantage on that side of the ball on Thursday night.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
Los Angeles’ rookie punter, Ty Long, is in his first NFL season, and this year he has punted 26 times for a net average of 42.2 yards per punt, 15th best in the league.
Oakland’s punter, A.J. Cole, is in his rookie NFL season and this year he has punted 32 times for a net average of 40.1 yards per punt, which is currently the 31st best in the league.
Los Angeles’ placekicker Michael Badgley is currently suffering a groin injury and for a while, punter Ty Long has filled in, but now the Chargers have signed free agent Chase McLaughlin.
McLaughlin is 6-for-9 this season, his longest a 50-yarder, and he has missed no extra point attempts (7/7).
Oakland’s placekicker, Daniel Carlson, is in his second NFL season and 2019 is his first full season with the Raiders.
Carlson has made 7-of-9 field goals in 2019, his longest a 45 yarder, and so far, he has missed no extra point attempts (23/23).
Los Angeles’ punt returner, nickelback Desmond King, is ranked 23rd in punt return average this season.
King has returned 11 punts for 77 yards, averaging 7.0 yards per return, his longest for a 68-yard touchdown return.
One of Oakland’s punt returners, wide receiver Trevor Davis, is ranked 5th in the league in return average.
Davis has returned 7 punts for 83 yards, averaging 11.9 yards per return, his longest for 32 yards.
Special Teams Advantage
While the Chargers futz with their fill-in placekicker, the Raiders will have a slight advantage when it comes to special teams.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Chargers Win this Game?
The Los Angeles Chargers will win this one if they can smother Derek Carr the way they did Aaron Rodgers last week – forcing Carr to throw on the run and either make mistakes or waste downs throwing the ball away.
Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could make life extremely uncomfortable for Carr, and without an effective passing attack the Raiders’ rushing game becomes more one-dimensional and much easier to defend.
Los Angeles will win this one if Philip Rivers, currently ranked the most productive quarterback in the NFL, can play at that level and take care of the ball, his 7 interceptions a small clue as to how quickly he can throw the ball (and game) away.
Why Will the Raiders Win this Game?
The Oakland Raider will win this game because the Chargers will not be able to stop Josh Jacobs, which will open things up for Derek Carr and his new favorite targets, backup receiver Hunter Renfrow and backup running back Jalen Richard.
The Raiders will win because they have an overall better offense and as long as Carr can get rid of the ball quickly the Chargers’ defense has less of an overall impact.
This is a home game, and the Raiders are running out of them, at least the ones in Oakland, so they will win this one riding the energy of a hometown crowd that would love to see a playoff run on this last go-around.
This Game Goes to the
Los Angeles Chargers by two points, because Philip Rivers is ready to get serious now about taking his team to January.
My prediction for the final score is Chargers 24, Raiders 22.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Oakland Raiders – Game Odds
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