Most NFL Passing Yards Odds, Predictions, Picks 2025: Jared Goff Jumped Into the Conversation

• Jared Goff jumped into the conversation with 800+ yards passing in Weeks 15 and 16 combined. He and Joe Burrow are the only two players with 4,000+ yards passing heading into Week 17

• Burrow holds a 134-yard lead over Goff and faces the Broncos and Steelers to end the season

• Patrick Mahomes is a little over 200 yards behind Burrow, but with the Chiefs locking up the No. 1 seed, he will probably not see the field much (if at all) over the last couple of weeks)

To win in today’s NFL, teams need to do several things well. But there is one thing they must do well even to have a shot at being a good team—throw the ball. That is why quarterback is the most highly coveted position on the field and why good ones are taken early in the draft.

A quarterback is, of course, only as good as the pass catchers he works with, although elite quarterbacks have been known to make mediocre players look good, good players excellent, and excellent players elite.

So, while it may help to have a superstar wide receiver to work with, it isn’t mandatory to lead the league in passing yards.

NFL Passing Yards Leaders Odds

The following table contains the odds for the top ten players listed on the BetRivers betting board, along with their relevant statistics.  Place your bets at BetRivers and claim the bonus: $500 Bonus Bet.

2024 NFL Passing Yards Leaders

Joe Burrow has been at or near the top of the stat sheet for passing yards for the whole season. He was expected to be a contender and hasn’t disappointed, but he is far from a lock to win the title. His odds give him an 88.51% chance to win the passing title.

But if he and Jared Goff were to finish the season with similar performances compared to Week 16 (252 to 336), Burrow would lose.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the remaining players on the board at BetRivers and review the likelihood they come out on top at the end of the regular season (odds via BetRivers):

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (-770) at BetRivers

For Burrow to finish the season as the passing yards leader, he just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing—feed Ja’Marr Chase and throw enough to everyone else to keep defenses honest. If he can keep up his 250+ yards-a-game streak (seven in a row and counting), he’ll be next to impossible to beat.

He faces the Broncos and Steelers to end the season. Over the last three weeks, teams have been averaging 299.7 yards passing per game and 262.7 yards.

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Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (+450) at BetRivers

• Yards Behind Burrow: 134

Goff has the best chance to catch Burrow, of course. Since they will likely need to beat Minnesota in Week 18 to clinch the division, Detroit will not rest anyway (probably). With David Montgomery on the mend, I’d expect a little more of an emphasis on the passing game. That way, teams don’t think they can get away with focusing on the run game.

However, they have a tough one on deck this week against a 49ers defense that’s been allowing 156.3 yards passing per game over their last three. Minnesota, however, has been allowing 270.3 yards per game over their last three.

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Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+2000) at BetRivers

• Yards Behind Burrow: 274

If Burrow plays in both of Cincinnati’s games, Smith doesn’t stand a realistic chance. With a 274-yard deficit to make up for, he essentially needs one more game than Burrow (which he doesn’t have, of course). He’ll face the Bears and Rams to end the season.

Teams have been lighting the Bears up in recent weeks, averaging over 288 yards passing per game over their last three games. The Rams haven’t been as generous, giving up 238.7.

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Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2500) at BetRivers

• Yards Behind Burrow: 309

Like Geno, Baker needs an additional game to catch up with Burrow. With games remaining against the Panthers and Saints, it doesn’t look good.

Carolina has been allowing a league-best -152.7 yards passing per game the last three weeks (although it may not be the Panthers' path defense as much as their struggles against the run. The New Orleans pass defense ranks 28^th in the league this season but has held teams to right around 200 yards passing in their last three.

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Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+8000) at BetRivers

• Yards Behind Burrow: 453

With such a massive deficit, I have to wonder why Darnold still has odds. It would take a couple of 500+ yard games to make up this deficit and whatever yards Burrow gains over his final two games.

Green Bay has been tough to throw on the last three weeks (179 yards passing per), but the Lions have been giving up a little under 300 yards per care.   

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Passing Yards Leader for the 2024 NFL Season - Does Anyone Have Value?

Joe Burrow is the obvious pick to lead the league in passing yards, but at -770, his odds have no value. But Jared Goff, on the other hand, has a real shot. At +450, I’d say his odds have value.

However, if you want to bet on this market, I’d suggest signing up for a new account with BetRivers (if you don’t have one) and claiming the $500 second chance bet they offer as a welcome bonus. That way, you can roll the dice and bet on Goff without having to worry about losing since your stake will be protected.

NFL Passing Yards Leaders - History

The following table contains a list of the passing yards leader for each year dating back to the 2000 season with the preseason betting odds for the winner where available along with how the season played out for their team

So, while the rules may favor the passing game, the regular season passing champ has led his team to the Super Bowl six times since the 2000 season, only to win once. Leading the league in passing didn’t even lead to a winning record for six teams nor a playoff berth for ten.

However, 14 teams won 10+ games, seven won 13+, and one had an undefeated regular season (16-0).

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Most Passing Yards Odds

It may sound cliché, but it’s true—all sportsbooks are not created equal. However, just because one seems to be right for your buddy does not mean it’s the right one for you.

So—how do you decide? First, you have to figure out what means most to you in an online sportsbook. Then, we’d suggest taking a look at our sportsbook reviews for an in-depth look at the top sportsbooks in the U.S. market. But you can see a quick comparison of three of the top NFL Betting sites below.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

How to Read NFL Most Passing Yards Odds

Most Passing Yards is a futures market where the odds are listed with either a + or – sign and a three-digit number. The number indicates how much a bettor can win if they were to bet on that particular market.

If there is a – sign in front of the three-digit number, that number is how much a bettor needs to risk in order to win $100. But if there is a plus sign instead, the number indicates how much can be won if bettors risk $100.

Let’s look at a couple of examples:

•  Heading into the season, Patrick Mahomes has +500 odds. Bet $100 on Mahomes to lead the league in passing yards, and if he does, you win $500.

• Let’s say C.J. Stroud has an incredible season and has a healthy cushion on the rest of the league heading into Week 15. His odds are -500. To win $100, bettors would have to risk $500.