New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens: Predictions and Odds (NFL Week 9)
This game goes to the Patriots by a field goal. Final score: Patriots 27, Ravens 24.
How to Watch: Patriots vs Ravens
What: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
When: Sunday Night Football, November 3 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland
How (TV): NBC
Latest point spread: Patriots -3.0, Ravens +3.0
In what looks to be one of the best games of Week 9, the undefeated New England Patriots travel to Baltimore to take on the exhilarating Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football, a possible prequel to an AFC postseason battle that could very well happen.
The 8-0 New England Patriots will be playing the best opponent they have faced so far this season, and that’s the 5-2 Baltimore Ravens, whose offense can score points on the ground and through the air with their innovative approach to the RPO.
This quarterback battle between the calculating Tom Brady and the speedy Lamar Jackson will be a good one, and now let’s take a quick look at how these two teams measure up against each other for their Week 9 Sunday night meeting.
We’ve covered the most exciting matchups of this week in our podcast “NFL Week 9 – Picks and Best Bets“. Have a look!
The 8-0-0 New England Patriots
Tough not to bet on the undefeated team, especially if it’s the New England Patriots, who have looked solid all season with a shutdown defense that excels in taking the ball away and tackling quarterbacks and works in conjunction with a well-oiled offense that can quickly hurt you quickly.
Until quarterback Tom Brady and his head coach Bill Belichick retire (will they ever?), it might not be a good idea to bet against them because they seem to be able to game plan around any team they face.
The only ‘weakness’ they have is their run game (ranked 23rd in total production) which is surprising because running backs Sony Michel and James White seem perfectly capable of having a 200+ yard game.
The 5-2-0 Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens should probably be 6-1, but somehow, they lost to the bumbling Cleveland Browns, which goes to show that this young AFC North team is still figuring out exactly who they are.
Second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson is Baltimore’s best runner – in fact, he’s the tenth best rusher in the league right now – and his ability to get quickly to the outside and pick up first downs (and more) is what’s creating such a spark in the Ravens’ offense.
For the first time in a long time, the Ravens have a defense that’s not in the league’s top five – in fact, their ranked 16th right now – and that’s something head coach John Harbough and defensive coordinator Don Martindale had better figure out if they expect the Ravens to survive the postseason.
What’s at Stake for Patriots vs Ravens?
These two AFC rivals have met 13 total times (including 4 postseason games), with
Baltimore winning 3 of those times and New England winning the other 10 games.
The last time these two teams met was in December of the 2016 season when the Ravens traveled to Foxborough just to get beaten by the Patriots by a touchdown, 30-23.
If the Patriots win this matchup, they’ll move to 9-0-0 and whispers of an undefeated season will turn into screams, their dominance of AFC East division made almost certain.
Questions to Answer
Who’s favored to win this Week 9 Patriots-Ravens matchup?
Which team has a better offense? Defense? Special teams?
Which team’s quarterback is more likely to lead his team to victory?
We’re going to briefly compare the Patriots and the Ravens next and attempt to answer those questions and more.
Offensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Offense
- Ranked 5th overall in 2018
- Ranked 16th overall in 2019
Passing attack: The New England Patriots have the 7th ranked passing offense in the league right now, averaging 274.6 yards per game through the air after eight weeks.
Quarterback Tom “GOAT” Brady is still under center in New England and ranked the 5th most productive passer in the league having completed 200-of-309 passes for 2,251 yards and 13 touchdowns with 4 interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.7.
The Patriots’ leading receiver after eight weeks is slot man Julien Edelman, who is currently ranked 15th in the league with 53 catches for 574 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Rushing attack: The Patriots’ rushing attack is ranked 23rd in the NFL after averaging 95.2 yards on the ground per game.
Sony Michel is the Patriots’ best runner and he is currently the 15th best in the NFL with 140 carries for 464 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
New England has scored 250 total points this season, or 31.2 per game, which is the highest total in the NFL.
New England Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 9: quarterback Tom Brady (shoulder), wide receivers Julian Edelman (chest) and Gunner Olszewski, tight ends Matt LaCosse (knee – MCL), running back Rex Burkhead (foot) and Ryan Izzo (concussion) and offensive guard Shaq Mason (ankle).
Injury notes: offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste (quadriceps) is listed as NFI, while kicker Stephen Gostkowski (hip), receiver N’Keal Harry (ankle), tackle Isaiah Wynn (toe), center David Andrews (illness) and guard Hjalte Froholdt (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Baltimore Ravens Overall Offense
- Ranked 9th overall in 2018
- Ranked 2nd overall in 2019
Passing attack: Baltimore has the 18th best passing attack in the league right now after averaging 230.7 yards through the air each game.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is the 20th most productive NFL passer after completing 136-of-215 passes for 1,650 yards and 11 touchdowns with 5 interceptions and a completion percentage of 63.3.
The Ravens’ best receiver is currently tight end Mark Andrews, who has caught 36 passes for 449 yards with 3 touchdowns in eight weeks, ranked 29th among NFL receivers right now.
Rushing attack: Baltimore has the top-ranked rushing attack, so far averaging 204.1 yards on the ground per game.
Lamar Jackson is the Ravens’ best runner and now he is the 10th most productive in the NFL with 83 carries for 576 yards and 3 touchdowns, averaging 6.9 yards per carry.
Baltimore has scored 214 points in 2019, averaging 30.6 per game, which is currently the 2nd highest scoring average in the NFL.
Baltimore Offensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 9: wide receiver Marquise Brown (ankle) and offensive guard Patrick Mekari (back).
Injury note: offensive guard Randin Crecelius (concussion) has been placed on injured reserve.
The Patriots are better through the air (via the GOAT) than the Ravens, but Baltimore is far more productive on the ground than New England, so the Ravens will have a slight offensive edge on Sunday.
Defensive Stats Comparison
New England Patriots Overall Defense
- Ranked 21st overall in 2018
- Ranked 2nd overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Patriots have the 2nd best pass defense in 2019 so far, allowing opponents to throw for 128.7 yards through the air per game.
New England’s defense has a league-leading 19 team interception and they have 31 sacks total, also first in the NFL.
Run coverage: The Patriots are the 4th best NFL team against the run right now after allowing opponents to run for 85.2 yards per game.
New England has allowed its opponents to score 61 total points, or 7.6 per game, which is the least in the NFL.
Patriots Defensive Players to Watch
One of the better defensive players in the league plays for the Patriots, outside linebacker Jamie Collins, who has 3 interceptions (one of those he ran back for a 69-yard pick-six), 7 passes defended, 6 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery and 44 tackles (7 for a loss).
After Collins, the next best sacker in New England is defensive tackle Adam Butler, who has 4.5 of them, plus 6 quarterback hits, 2 passes defended and 15 total tackles (5 for a loss).
The Patriots’ defense is made exceptional by free safety Devin McCourty, who has a league-leading 5 interceptions, 11 passes defended, a fumble recovery and 21 total tackles.
Patriots Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 9: safety Patrick Chung (chest).
Injury notes: linebacker Brandon King (quadriceps), safety Malik Gant (undisclosed), safety D’Angelo Ross (undisclosed), defensive ends Keionta Davis (undisclosed) and Derek Rivers (undisclosed) have all been placed on injured reserve.
Baltimore Ravens Overall Defense
- Ranked 1st overall in 2018
- Ranked 16th overall in 2019
Pass coverage: The Ravens’ defense is 26th best against the pass, allowing their opponents to throw for an average of 265.4 yards per matchup.
Baltimore’s defense has 6 interceptions on opposing quarterbacks and they have 120 total sacks after eight weeks.
Run coverage: The Ravens are 3rd best against a rushing attack, allowing opponents to run for an average of 84.3 yards per game.
Baltimore has allowed its opponents to score 156 total points this season, or 22.3 per matchup, which is 16th fewest in the NFL.
Ravens Defensive Players to Watch
The Baltimore player with the most tackles right now is inside linebacker Patrick Onwuasor, who has 30 total tackles (2 for a loss), plus a sack, a pass defended and 4 quarterback hits.
Make sure to watch outside linebacker Matt Judon, who has 4.0 sacks for the Ravens, 13 quarterback hits and 21 total tackles (5 for a loss).
Baltimore’s secondary has a cornerback worth checking out, Marlon Humphrey, who has 2 interceptions, 9 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles, 2 recovered fumbles (one for a touchdown), 1 quarterback hit and 22 total tackles (3 for a loss).
Ravens Defensive Injuries
Listed as questionable for Week 9: cornerbacks Jimmy Smith (knee – MCL) and Maurice Canady (hamstring), linebacker Patrick Onwuasor (ankle) and safeties Bennett Jackson (ankle) and Earl Thomas (knee).
Injury notes: safety DeShon Elliott (knee), linebackers Otaro Alaka (hamstring) and Pernell McPhee (triceps), cornerback Iman Marshall (toe), safeties Fish Smithson (undisclosed), Tony Jefferson (knee – ACL) and Brynden Trawick (elbow) and cornerback Tavon Young (neck) have all been placed on injured reserve.
The New England Patriots have the best defense in the league right now so they will have the defensive advantage over the Ravens on Sunday.
Special Teams Stats Comparison
New England’s punter, Jake Bailey, is in his first NFL season and this season he has punted 43 times for a net average of 41.6 yards per punt, which was the 19th best in the league.
Baltimore’s veteran punter, Sam Koch, is in his fourteenth NFL season (all with the Ravens) and so far he has punted 18 times this season for a net average of 41.4 yards per punt, which is currently 23rd best in the league.
New England’s placekicker, Stephen Gostkowski, is in his 14th NFL season, all with the Patriots, but he has been placed on injured reserve for a hip injury (see above).
Mike Nugent, a 15-year NFL veteran, has been signed on to kick for the Patriots, and he is 5-of-8 in 2019, his longest a 37-yarder and he has missed 1 extra point attempt (15/16).
Baltimore’s placekicker, Justin Tucker, is in his eighth NFL season, all with the Ravens.
Tucker has made 16-of-16 field goals so far this season, his longest a 51 yarder, and so far, he has missed zero extra point attempts (20/20).
New England’s punt returner, wide receiver Gunner Olszewski, is ranked 16th in the league in return average.
Olszewski has returned 20 punts for 179 yards, averaging 8.6 yards per return, his longest for 22 yards.
Baltimore’s punt returner, cornerback Cyrus Jones, is ranked 10th in average punt return yardage this season.
Jones has returned 10 punts for 106 yards, averaging 10.6 yards per return.
Special Teams Advantage
Baltimore has Justin Tucker, one of the league’s best kickers and New England currently has a fill-in, so the Ravens have the special teams advantage over the Patriots on Sunday.
Final Game Analysis
Why Will the Patriots Win this Game?
No NFL head coach is better than Bill Belichick when it comes to neutralizing an opponent’s strengths, so for the Patriots to win this one, he will have to figure out how to shut down Lamar Jackson’s ability to escape the pocket for big gains.
Shouldn’t be difficult for the Pats to do, given they have the best defense in the league, but they did struggle against the run in Cleveland (Nick Chubb ran for 131 yards against them in Week 8) so apparently it is possible for a team to rush big on them.
But the two main reasons the Patriots will win this one on the road against the talented Ravens are the same two reasons that have applied for the last two decades, and that’s Brady and Belichick, two GOATs that can always find a way to beat you by nullifying whatever fuels you – bet on it.
Why Will the Ravens Win this Game?
The Baltimore Ravens will win this game because they are the best team the Patriots have faced all season, and they are one of the few teams in the AFC who can keep up with New England offensively, both teams one and two on the total scoring list this season.
Lamar Jackson is a lot to handle, and as good as the Patriots’ defense is, Jackson requires too much attention and that will leave somebody else (at least) open and chances are Ravens head coach John Harbaugh has figured this out.
The main thing Baltimore has to do if they want to win is to figure out how to put pressure on Tom Brady, not an easy accomplishment given the GOAT tends to successfully get rid of the ball in less than two seconds, but a necessary one if you want to hand them their first loss of the year.
The Patriots vs Ravens Game Goes To
The New England Patriots by a field goal, because their defense will limit Jackson and the GOAT will find a few ways to hook up with Edelman and Sanu in the end zone.
John Breech of CBS Sports predicts the score as Ravens 23, Patriots 20.
My prediction for the final score is Patriots 27, Ravens 24.
New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens – Game Odds