Thursday Night Football Prop Bets: Best TNF Player Props Week 14

We’ve arrived at Week 14 of the NFL season, and here, the Pittsburgh Steelers will host the New England Patriots. 

Below are the top three prop bets for this matchup.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

Pick: Mitchell Trubisky Over 180.5 Passing Yards (-113) at Caesars

Mitchell Trubisky entered Week 13 in relief of Kenny Pickett for the Steelers and completed 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards. This week, he draws a Patriots defense allowing opposing quarterbacks to pass for nearly 235 yards per game. 

While Trubisky failed to hit 181 passing yards here and also in Week 8 relief (138 passing yards on 27 attempts), he’s been a fairly good bet to hit this number in his starts with the Steelers.

Last season, Trubisky started five games and finished with 180 passing yards in two of those five games. In one of the games he exited early, one resulted in just 168 yards, which was against the Patriots, and the other was 179 passing yards, so he was right on the verge of going over on this number. 

The Patriots have allowed 181 or more passing yards in all but two games this season, and the streak of passers accomplishing this feat is nine games. 

Trubisky has had some time to prepare as the starter and has many weapons at his disposal. 

Look for him to approach the 200-yard mark. 

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Pick: Jaylen Warren Any Time TD (+145) at DraftKings

While reports indicate that Najee Harris will play in this game, we still like Jaylen Warren to get the bulk of the action.

Against the Patriots, Warren will face a defense that allows 74 rushing yards and 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing running backs. In the passing game, they allow about five receptions for 33 yards. 

While these aren’t the greatest numbers to bet someone scoring a touchdown on, it’s evident that the running game will be the focus here, especially with Harris back in the lineup. 

In relief of Pickett last week, Trubisky averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt, so we could see Warren get more involved in the passing game, too. 

In a game like this with a lower total, expect plenty of action from the running backs on both sides with two subpar quarterbacks. 

The Patriots have also allowed a rushing touchdown in three of their last five games. While they haven’t allowed one in back-to-back games, they allowed one in Weeks 8-10. 

Getting +145 value, Warren is an excellent bet here. 

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Pick: Race to 20 Points: Neither Team (+105) at DraftKings

The total in this matchup is 30 points, with a six-point spread. So, this implies that neither team has a team total of 20. The Steelers are close at 18 but still not quite 20.

Last week, the Steelers managed just 10 points against the Cardinals. The Steelers haven’t scored 20 in their last three games—two of which include the new offensive coordinator staff that replaced Matt Canada. 

The Patriots haven’t allowed opponents to reach 20 points in their last three games. If you go back to their fourth-most recent game, they allowed exactly 20 to the Washington Commanders. 

With Trubisky under center against a somewhat low-key feisty Patriots defense, don’t expect either team to hit 20 points here.

Getting +105 value on either team scoring 20 points when the implied total has not reached 20 is always a solid value play.

Take it here. 

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