Germany vs. Denmark Prediction: Hosts Seek Place in Quarters

Written by: Greg Lea
Published June 28, 2024
6 min read
  • The host nation Germany accumulated seven points to finish top of Group A

  • Denmark advanced to the last 16 by finishing second in Group C

  • Germany should get the job done against Denmark as the knockouts begin

Germany vs. Denmark Odds

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3 goals+800
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Germany vs. Denmark Pick

Back Germany to beat Denmark by two goals. The hosts can march on with a relatively comfortable victory in this one.

Bet on Germany 2 Goals Margin (+370) at FanDuel 

Germany vs Denmark Euro 2024 Prediction

Germany One of Strongest Performers in Group Stage

It is easy to forget now, but this time 12 months ago the Germany national team was not a happy camp. After being eliminated from a second consecutive World Cup in the group stage at the back end of 2022, Germany proceeded to lose friendlies to Belgium, Poland, Colombia, Japan, Turkey, and Austria last year. 

Eventually, the situation became untenable and Hansi Flick was sacked as manager. Julian Nagelsmann was chosen as his replacement, but things did not immediately improve.

Indeed, the aforementioned defeats by Turkey and Austria were overseen by the incumbent. But there were signs of progress in the March international break earlier this year and Germany have, for the most part, impressed so far at Euro 2024.

The Nationalelf turned on the style on opening night, thrashing Scotland 5-1 in front of a largely jubilant crowd at the Allianz Arena. Germany then eased to a 2-0 victory over Hungary in their second outing of the tournament, before following up with a 1-1 draw with Switzerland to secure top spot in Group A.

Germany did not have everything their own way in that game. Indeed, they needed a Niclas Fullrkug equalizer in second-half stoppage time to avoid defeat. Ironically, that goal has landed them on the harder side of the knockout stage bracket. Because of how the draw has worked out, only one of Germany, Spain, France or Portugal can make the final.

It is true that Nagelsmann’s side did stumble a little against the Swiss, but they were still one of the most impressive overall performers in the group stage. Only Spain amassed more points and no one scored more goals or finished with a larger goal difference. With home advantage to call upon too, nobody will relish facing Germany at this competition - least of all Denmark.

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Denmark Aiming to Pull Off Major Upset in Round of 16

Denmark were the surprise package at Euro 2020, reaching the semi-finals and only narrowly losing to England after extra time. This time around they held the Three Lions to a 1-1 draw in Group C of Euro 2024, either side of stalemates against Slovenia (1-1) and Serbia (0-0). Denmark are both unbeaten at this European Championship and yet to win a game.

That makes it difficult to predict how they will fare against Germany. Perhaps the England match provides the best indication. 

Against Slovenia and Serbia, Denmark were the more proactive team. They had more of the ball and took more shots against both opponents. In the England game, they were facing one of the leading contenders to lift the trophy - just as Germany are.

Denmark are a decent team. Kasper Hjulmand has been at the helm for four years now and his side are well-versed in the manager’s methods. They lined up in a 3-4-1-2 formation against Slovenia, before shifting to more of a 3-4-2-1 in their meetings with England and Serbia. Denmark have rehearsed patterns of play and all their players are comfortable in possession.

But it is hard to shake the feeling that this side is past its best. There is not a great deal of pace in the Denmark team and they may struggle to get up the pitch quickly if they are pinned back by Germany. 

Needless to say, it would be a major shock if Denmark were to come out on top in this last-16 tie at Euro 2024.

Be sure to take a look at our Euro 2024 Winner Predictions for more detail.

Germany Should Get the Job Done in Dortmund on Saturday

Given he has not yet been at the helm for a year, Nagelsmann has done a good job to get Germany to this position. It is not just that they took the second-highest number of points in the group phase, but also that he has given his team a clear identity and game plan to work towards.

Germany are well balanced from back to front. Toni Kroos will retire at the end of the Euros, but he is still one of the best midfielders in the world. His creative talents are supplemented by the grit and industry provided by Robert Andrich, a smart inclusion from Nagelsmann.

Further forward, the manager prefers Kai Havertz to the aforementioned Fullkrug in part because his clever movement opens up space for the impressive trio of Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, and Ilkay Gundogan in attacking midfield.

Germany are yet to keep a clean sheet this summer and the centre-back Jonathan Tah will miss this match through suspension. Yet the expected goals data shows that only three sides gave up more chances in the group stage. Despite the pre-tournament doubts, Germany have been pretty solid at the back so far.

Denmark, on the other hand, did not exactly set Group C alight. They have looked a little toothless up front, with Manchester United striker Rasmus Hojlund taking just two shots in three matches. This should be a reasonably comfortable 90 minutes for Germany - go for a win by a two-goal margin.

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How to Watch Germany vs. Denmark

  • Teams: Germany vs Denmark

  • Location: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany

  • Date and Time: Saturday, 29 June 2024 at 3:00 PM ET 

  • How to Watch: FOX

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Greg Lea

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
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