Netherlands vs. France Prediction: Group D Heavyweights Face Off

Written by: Greg Lea
Updated June 21, 2024
6 min read
  • France got off to a winning start on matchday one, beating Austria 1-0

  • The Netherlands needed a late goal to beat Poland 2-1 last time out

  • The winner of this game should finish top of Group D at Euro 2024

Netherlands vs. France Odds

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Netherlands vs. France - My Pick

Back France to beat the Netherlands. Didier Deschamps’s side can make it two wins from two in this one.

Bet on France to Win (+125) at bet365 

Netherlands vs France Euro 2024 Prediction

France Get the Job Done Without Setting Tournament Alight

France were victorious on matchday one of the Euro 2024 Tournament, dispatching Austria 1-0. It was, in many ways, a typical performance from Didier Deschamps’ side. France did not set the world alight, but they rarely do. Yet they were mostly solid at the back and came up with a decisive moment in the final third, as Kylian Mbappe forced an own goal out of Max Wober.

There were positives for Deschamps to take. The recall of N’Golo Kante for this tournament was a gamble, but the ball-winning midfielder turned in a fantastic performance in the centre of the park. The backline looked pretty comfortable against decent opponents, while Mike Maignan was assured between the sticks.

There was one obvious negative, though. Late on in a full-blooded encounter, Mbappe suffered a facial injury. France’s worst fears were later confirmed: a scan showed that their star man had broken his nose, necessitating a spell on the sidelines. Mbappe will play no part in this crunch clash with the Netherlands on Friday.

It is too early to know exactly how long he will be out for. But even an optimist would struggle to foresee the forward returning before the knockout phase. This is not the sort of development that France were hoping for in their very first game of the tournament. At the same time, they are not a one-man team and Mbappe’s absence gives others the chance to step up to the plate.

The fact that only eight teams will be eliminated before the round of 16 means that this is not a must-win encounter for France. Yet a victory here would take the pressure off by almost certainly securing top spot for les Bleus. That would buy them more time to nurse Mbappe back to full fitness.

Bet on Netherlands vs France at bet365 

Netherlands Are an Intriguing Proposition at Euro 2024

The Netherlands were also triumphant on matchday one, although they too were made to work hard for the three points. Even without talisman Robert Lewandowski, Poland established an early lead through Adam Buksa, who headed home from a corner. The Dutch soon got back on level terms, however, and Wout Weghorst struck a late winner to get his side off and running.

Despite talk of a 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 formation at Euro 2024, Ronald Koeman went with a 4-2-3-1 against Poland last time out. The absence of Frenkie de Jong undoubtedly makes the Dutch midfield weaker, and it will be interesting to see if Tijjani Reijnders is pulled deeper alongside Jerdy Schouten and Joey Veerman in the engine room against France. 

Just like their upcoming opponents, a win in this game would likely send the Netherlands through to the knockout phase as Euro 2024 Group D winners, which would in turn provide them with an easier tie in the round of 16 - on paper at least. 

Having said that, there are still question marks over whether the Netherlands are really capable of going all the way this summer. Their defense is strong but we need to see more from the Dutch in attack against stronger opposition. Memphis Depay was eye-catching against Poland, but his end product was mediocre. Xavi Simons also struggled to really influence the game.

Koeman knows that a win against joint-favorites France would be a huge boost to his team’s confidence. That is why this match is important beyond the desire of both teams to pick up three points in the group. From the perspective of a neutral, this is undoubtedly one of the most intriguing contests in the first phase of the European Championship - you will not want to miss it.

Even Without Mbappe, France Can Collect Maximum Points

It is worth noting that France and the Netherlands were in the same qualifying group for this tournament. Both meetings between them ended with the French celebrating: Deschamps’ team won 4-0 at Saint-Denis and 2-1 in Amsterdam. That will give them confidence ahead of this tussle in Leipzig.

It would be a mistake to write France off even if Mbappe will play no part. There is no doubt that the soon-to-be Real Madrid attacker is his country’s foremost player - and perhaps the best in the whole world. 

But France’s other offensive options include Randal Kolo Muani, Ousmane Dembele, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Bradley Barcola and Kingsley Coman. They are not short of talent in the top part of the pitch.

Another factor in their favor is Deschamps, a manager who seems perfectly suited to tournament soccer. France will likely be even more pragmatic than usual given they are without Mbappe, but they have shown time and time again that they can win matches in that way.

The Netherlands, by contrast, have not beaten another heavyweight nation at a European Championship since they thrashed France 4-1 in 2008. That is a long time ago - and les Bleus can avenge that loss on Friday. Go for Deschamps and co. in this one.

Bet on Netherlands vs France at one of our top-rated sportsbooks listed below, or get more insights by checking our list of the Best Euro 2024 Betting Sites and Promos.

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How to Watch Netherlands vs. France

  • Teams: Netherlands vs. France

  • Location: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany

  • Date and Time: Friday, June 21 at 9.00 AM ET 

  • How to Watch: Fox Sports


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Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts in Politics
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