Spain vs. France Prediction: Two Heavyweights Face-Off in Semi-Final

Written by: Greg Lea
Published July 8, 2024
6 min read
  • Spain beat Germany 2-1 after extra time in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024

  • France eliminated Portugal on penalties in the last eight of the tournament

  • The winner of this encounter will go forward to the final in Berlin on Sunday

Spain vs. France Odds

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Spain +163
Draw +195
France +210
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Spain vs. France Pick

Back Spain to beat France in the semi-finals. They have played better soccer up to now and can prove their superiority here.

Bet on Spain to beat France at BetRivers 

Spain vs France Euro 2024 Prediction

Impressive Spain Aim To Reach First Final Since 2014

Spain faced their toughest test yet in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024, but they are still standing after a clash with host nation Germany. There was little to choose between the two teams during their 120 minutes of play on Friday, but a Mikel Merino header right at the end of extra time secured a 2-1 win for Spain, now the favorites to lift the trophy with the best online sportsbooks.

There is no doubt that la Roja have been the strongest side at this European Championship to date. They were the only nation to win all three group games, despite being drawn in a tricky section alongside Croatia, Italy and Albania. Spain then made light work of Georgia in the round of 16, running out 4-1 winners after falling behind.

Luis de la Fuente may not be the biggest name in management, but he has done a good job since succeeding Luis Enrique. First came victory in the most recent edition of the Nations League, with De la Fuente now targeting continental glory of another kind. 

He has evolved Spain’s style of play, shifting slightly away from the tiki-taka, possession-obsessed approach introduced by Luis Aragones and furthered by Vincente del Bosque. Spain still keep the ball better than most, but in Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal they have two direct, fast wide players who can quicken the tempo and provide an outlet.

Spain reached the semi-finals of Euro 2020 under the aforementioned Luis Enrique. They were the better team against Italy on that occasion, but they could not finish the job and ended up losing on penalties. Spain will hope to go one better this time around as they seek a place in a major final for the first time since 2012.

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France Have Not Clicked Yet Are Still in the Semi-Finals

Once again, there have been grumblings over France’s style of play this summer. It is a familiar theme. Time and time again throughout the Didier Deschamps era, France have been criticized for playing within themselves and using a cautious approach despite an abundance of attacking talent within the ranks.

Deschamps is unapologetic about a style which has taken his country to three of the last four World Cup and European Championship finals. “If they don’t like it, they can change the channel,” the long-serving manager huffed when it was put to him that France were not entertaining the public at this tournament.

Les Bleus have certainly not played with the same swagger as Spain. They have scored only three goals in five games to date - one was a penalty and the other two were from opposition players. France edged out Belgium 1-0 thanks to an own goal in the round of 16, before needing penalties to eliminate Portugal last time out.

France lived dangerously in that game. Neither they nor Portugal really went for it in the 120 minutes, but it was probably Roberto Martinez’s men that created the better chances. Still, France’s defensive resolve helped them to keep another clean sheet - their fourth in five matches in Germany. The only goal they have conceded so far was a penalty against Poland.

This France team will not win any beauty contests, but under Deschamps, they have consistently demonstrated their ability to get to the latter stages of tournaments. There is never any panic with France. Others may fret about their style, but the players seem to have complete faith in a game plan which has served them so well over the years.

Spain Can Reach the Final of the European Championship

France will aim to grind out another victory here. They have more tournament know-how and experience than this Spain squad, and if the game stays at 0-0 for a long time that could give them an advantage.

France are also difficult to break down defensively, while they have more game-changing options from the bench. Moreover, Spain will have to make do without Pedri, Robin Le Normand, and Dani Carvajal, whereas France have no known absentees.

Having said all that, we expect Spain to edge out les Bleus on Tuesday. Pedri was replaced by Dani Olmo early in the Germany game and the latter went on to win the Player of the Match award. Le Normand is not a massive loss with Nacho Fernandez waiting in the wings, although admittedly Jesus Navas is a step down from Carvajal at right-back.

For all that France have a history of reaching major finals, they have seldom played well at this tournament and that could catch up with them here. Spain’s wide players will test France’s backline in a way that Belgium and Portugal did not really manage to do. Spain are also capable of taking the ball away from their opponents for long periods.

There is unlikely to be much between these two teams, but we favor Spain to reach the Euro 2024 final.

Check our analysis of the Best Euro 2024 Betting Sites, or place your bets with one of our favorite sportsbooks below 👇

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How to Watch Spain vs. France

  • Teams: Spain vs. France

  • Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany

  • Date and Time: Tuesday, July 9 at 3:00 PM ET 

  • How to Watch: FOX


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Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts in Politics
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