Houston Astros vs New York Mets: Best in the AL Meets the Best in the NL

• Dominant offenses set to clash
• Winning pitchers face off in game one
• X-factors to watch

Astros vs Mets Odds

Astros vs Mets Prediction and Picks

The Astros enter play having just split a four-game series with the Yankees and it could have been even better had Aaron Judge not hit two walk offs in the series. Still, Houston is 8-3 in its last 11. The Mets still hold the best record in the NL, but Carlos Corrasco simply gives up too many runs and doesn’t go deep enough into games

Astros to cover the spread (+135)

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Astros vs Mets Betting Trends to Watch (As of 6.27)

• Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs a right-handed starter
• Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record
• Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
• Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Astros are 27-10 in their last 37 games vs a right-handed starter
• Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 road games
• Astros are 35-16 in their last 51 Tuesday games
• Astros are 38-18 in their last 56 overall
• Under is 9-3 in Astros last 12 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
• Under is 21-8 in Astros last 29 road games vs a right-handed starter
• Under is 40-18-3 in Astros last 61 overall
• Mets are 22-5 in their last 27 games following a loss
• Mets are 26-7 in their last 33 games following an off day
• Mets are 12-4 in their last 16 Tuesday games
• Mets are 23-9 in their last 32 home games
• Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 interleague games
• Over is 5-0-1 in Mets last 6 interleague games vs a right-handed starter
• Over is 5-1-1 in Mets last 7 vs American League West

Garcia’s 2022 record: (23-14)

Battle of the Offenses

It’s a rare occasion when either one of these teams is not the overwhelmingly better offense in a game, though that’s what happens as one of the best in the AL meets the same in the NL.

The Astros numbers aren’t as gaudy as the Mets’, but they are still hitting for plenty of power with the sixth best slugging percentage in all of baseball. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle TUcker have done the majority of their work on the road, so they’re worth keeping an eye on.

Alvarez has 13 home runs, 31 RBIs, a .417 on-base percentage and a sky-high 1.104 OPS in 36 games when not at Minute Maid Park. Tucker meanwhile has 10 home runs and 31 RBIs in 37 games outside of Houston, with a .930 OBP.

The Mets, meanwhile, just rake all the way across the board – especially at home. As a team New York is 2nd in runs scored, second in on-base percentage and third in batting average.

The Mets have seven players who have played at least 17 home games with a .361 OBP (league average is .312) or better and seven with an OPS of .794 or higher (league average is .705).

Pitching Matchup More Lopsided Than Numbers Show

Carlos Corrasco is 8-3 this season – that’s tied for the fourth most victories in all of baseball. Usually one doesn’t have that many victories while putting up average numbers, but Corrasco hasn’t been nearly as good as his record would indicate.

The 35-year-old veteran has a 4.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, numbers that have jumped up after two rough outings in his last three starts. Since June 11th, Corrasco has allowed 13 runs in 13.1 innings, giving up 21 hits and five walks – just a shade below a 2.00 WHIP.

Corrasco has made it through six innings just twice in his last starts and has given up four runs or more four times.

Framber Valdez, meanwhile, has been very solid for the Astros. The power left-handed thrower enters play with a 2.90 ERA. 1.13 WHIP and a 7-3 record. But what he doesn’t get enough credit for, is his ability to go deep into games each and every time out.

Not only has Valdez gone six innings or more in 12 of 14 outings, he’s thrown 11 consecutive quality starts and has given up more than three earned runs just once (April 19) this season.

X-Factors to Watch

For New York, the x-factor to watch is Jeff McNeill. The second baseman has been out for a week with a hamstring injury, but manager Buck Schowalter said he is expected to be back Tuesday.

McNeil has been the Mets’ best hitter against lefties this year, batting .299 (20-for-67) with a .365 OBP.

For Houston, it’s red-hot Jose Altuve. The Astros’ second baseman has three home runs the past week and two doubles, good for a 1.274 OPS.

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